Bitcoin Smashes $109K as ETF Demand and Fed Shift Accelerate the Bull Run

Bitcoin Breaks $109K as ETF Flows and Fed Signals Collide

BTC-USD Eyes $135K as BlackRock, Fed, and Trade Risks Drive Volatility Surge

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged past $109,000 after explosive institutional inflows flooded spot ETFs with over $1 billion in July, led by BlackRock and Fidelity. These inflows mark one of the strongest accumulations since March 2024, with more than 50,000 BTC acquired across U.S. ETFs in just 12 trading days. The sudden shift in flow velocity signals a renewed institutional appetite ahead of anticipated Fed rate cuts and rising global macro risk.

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF Sees $420M in Weekly Inflows – Institutions Return to Bitcoin

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) pulled in $420 million last week alone, driving its AUM above $19 billion and accounting for more than 30% of total U.S. ETF Bitcoin holdings. Fidelity’s FBTC followed closely, with $270 million in net flows. In total, U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs now hold over 865,000 BTC, worth approximately $94 billion at current prices.

These allocations suggest long-only institutional desks are aggressively rebuilding exposure as the dollar weakens and the Fed pivots toward easing. Notably, Grayscale’s GBTC saw smaller outflows this time, meaning net ecosystem demand outweighed internal reshuffling.

Trump’s Tariff Threats and Global Tensions Light a Fire Under BTC

Former President Trump’s proposed 60% China import tariff and 100% duties on EVs sparked fears of a new global trade war, rattling risk markets. In contrast, Bitcoin rallied. The digital asset has reclaimed its hedge narrative amid rising political instability, climbing nearly 9% in 4 sessions.

The market is now treating BTC as a high-volatility, non-sovereign store of value — a direct reaction to fiat weaponization risk and expected FX turbulence. Gold also saw inflows, but BTC outperformed.

Technical Breakout: BTC Clears Resistance at $108,400 With Room to $117K

Bitcoin broke above the $108,400 resistance, clearing a six-week downtrend with volume confirmation. The next technical target is $117,200, followed by the March high at $135,000. If ETF flows sustain above $700M/week, a move toward $200,000 remains plausible this quarter.

Key momentum indicators flipped bullish:

• RSI jumped to 63 from 48 in three days

• MACD crossover confirmed on daily and 4-hour

• Funding rates positive, but not overheated — implying spot-led rally

BTC’s correlation to the Nasdaq also broke down this week, decoupling as equity indices slid on tariff fears while crypto rallied — signaling an idiosyncratic bull leg.

Fed Rate Cuts in September: Crypto Prices Front-Run Monetary Easing

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September has risen to 67%. The Treasury curve flattened further last week as 2Y yields fell below 4.60%, and BTC responded with aggressive upside. In 2023–2024, every Fed cut cycle has triggered a 30–50% BTC rally in the following 90 days.

Traders are now pricing in:

• September: 25 bps cut (67% odds)

• December: Additional 25 bps (42% odds)

That timeline aligns with ETF inflows and capital reallocation out of money markets and into high-beta risk. BTC stands to benefit the most as a 24/7, globally liquid, rate-sensitive asset.

Whales Accumulating Again: On-Chain and Derivatives Confirm Smart Money Buildup

Glassnode and CryptoQuant data show:

• >37K BTC added to whale wallets in past 10 days

• Futures OI rose 12%, but liquidations remain tame

• Long-term holder supply at ATH, 70.8% of total supply

Smart money accumulation plus sustained ETF demand forms the core structure for BTC’s base breakout. The rising open interest paired with low leverage flush risk indicates deeper spot market leadership.

BTC-USD Verdict: BUY – $135K in Sight, $200K Not Unreasonable

With flows exceeding $1B/month, macro volatility rising, and the Fed poised to cut, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is in a renewed bull phase. Key upside levels at $117K, $135K, and eventually $200K are valid targets as liquidity rotates back into digital assets.

ETF demand, whale activity, technical strength, and geopolitical instability form a complete bullish setup. This is no longer a speculative bounce — it’s a conviction-driven institutional re-entry. BUY BTC-USD on dips above $106,000 with a trailing support line at $102,500 and breakout momentum pushing for $135K by Q3.

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