Copper Price Forecast - HG=F Near $4.50: Anglo-Teck Merger and Grasberg Halt Drive Market

Copper (HG=F) Price Momentum and Technical Landscape

Copper futures are holding above $4.26/lb, with intraday trading near $4.50/lb and immediate resistance seen at $4.62 before testing the $4.75 barrier. Momentum indicators flipped positive as stochastic readings exited oversold territory, a signal that aligns with the trend forecast remaining bullish. Analysts frame today’s trading range between $4.42–$4.75/lb, highlighting that stability above $4.26 is critical for confirming the upside path. A failure to defend this level could reverse sentiment, but for now the bias tilts toward renewed bullish attack as traders position around the $4.62–$4.75 levels.

Impact of Tariffs and U.S. Domestic Utilization

Since August, U.S. tariffs of 50% on imported semi-finished copper products have disrupted trade flows. Direct export orders for pipes and derivatives into the U.S. declined sharply, pressuring overseas producers. Yet the policy redirected demand internally, boosting U.S. factory operations and raising processing fees. This shift elevated domestic copper pipe operating rates, which rose from 65.7% in August to a projected 68.9% in September, a 3.22 percentage-point MoM increase. Medium-sized producers even surpassed large facilities with operating rates above 72.5%, reflecting a more even distribution of orders across the supply chain.

Industrial Demand from Air Conditioners and Energy Systems

Household air conditioner sales, a major copper consumer, show a mixed picture. September 2025 domestic sales are scheduled at 5.72 million units, down 6.3% YoY, while October projections fall more sharply by 23.4% YoY to 4.815 million units. Exports also slipped, with September shipments expected at 5.025 million units, a 16.6% YoY drop. These declines stem from last year’s heavy subsidy-driven production, meaning demand is normalizing after a strong first half. Still, the energy transition continues to underpin copper’s longer-term demand profile, as EV manufacturing and renewable infrastructure absorb more refined copper every quarter.

Global Supply Constraints and Grasberg Disruption

Copper’s bullish bias is reinforced by supply-side shocks. On the London Metal Exchange, contracts slipped below $10,000/ton last week after weak U.S. labor market data fueled demand concerns. Yet operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg Mine—one of the world’s largest producers—were suddenly suspended after an incident, sparking questions about near-term supply security. This disruption has lifted prices back toward $9,917/ton, narrowing the downside risks and keeping speculative interest intact. Supply fragility in core producing nations like Chile, Peru, and Indonesia continues to define copper’s floor pricing.

Anglo American and Teck Resources Create $53B Copper Giant

The merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, forming a $53 billion copper-focused major, resets the industry’s hierarchy. The new entity, dubbed Anglo Teck, will be headquartered in Vancouver and offer 70% copper exposure, listing in London, New York, Johannesburg, and Toronto. Shareholders of Anglo will own 62.4%, while Teck holders will keep 37.6%. This combination is a bet on copper scarcity and long-life Andean and Canadian hubs. It also creates scale advantages: improved concentrate blending, bulk procurement efficiencies, and stronger bargaining power on treatment charges. Importantly, it positions the company as a frontrunner in supplying copper for the AI data center boom and renewable grid buildouts, both of which are forecast to double copper intensity per unit of GDP.

Market Fundamentals and Price Forecasts

Year-to-date, copper has gained about 15%, supported by electrification demand but capped by Trump’s 50% import levies. Analysts see copper averaging $9,000–$10,500/ton in 2025, representing a 7% YoY increase from 2024’s base. Near-term upside could extend toward $10,500 if infrastructure and renewable demand absorb tighter supply. Downside risks linger if U.S. economic softness undermines construction demand or if China’s export schedules for copper-intensive products weaken further. Still, high barriers to greenfield mine development mean existing operations will remain price-setters well into the decade.

Positioning and Investment View

Copper’s technicals point to bullish continuation above $4.26/lb, with breakout potential through $4.75/lb and mid-term tests at $5.00. Supply chain shocks, tariffs, and industrial realignments reinforce tightness. Structural demand from EVs, grid modernization, and AI-linked energy requirements anchor the medium-term case. With Anglo Teck consolidation underscoring scarcity and smelter bottlenecks persisting, the balance of risks skews upward. On the evidence, HG=F is a Buy, with positioning favorable for traders and long-term investors seeking exposure to electrification metals.

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