Copper Price (HG=F) Rises to $9,898 as U.S. Expansion and China Signals Drive Demand

Copper Price Momentum Fueled by U.S. and China Growth Signals

Copper (HG=F) has extended its rally into late August, with futures on COMEX climbing 1% to $4.5880 per pound, equal to $10,093 per ton, while the London Metal Exchange benchmark rose as high as $9,898 per ton. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly gain, driven by stronger U.S. GDP data and signs of stabilization in Chinese industry. Revised U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was lifted to 3.3% from 3.0%, powered by a 5.7% jump in business investment and solid household consumption. In China, industrial profits fell in July but at a slower pace than June, signaling that government intervention to address overcapacity and boost manufacturing may be taking hold, improving downstream copper demand prospects.

Fed Policy and Dollar Weakness Enhance HG=F Appeal

Copper’s late-summer strength is reinforced by the U.S. dollar’s 2% monthly decline, which has made dollar-denominated metals cheaper for overseas buyers. Traders are pricing in an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, lowering borrowing costs and boosting appetite for industrial commodities. Market participants highlight that a weaker dollar aligns with bullish copper dynamics, particularly as speculative flows enter the sector. Goldman Sachs, however, has kept its year-end LME copper forecast at $9,700 per ton, suggesting that while the near-term upswing is intact, looser physical markets and uneven Chinese data remain risks.

Copper Technical Levels: Support at $4.38 and Resistance at $4.75

Technically, copper is attempting to establish a bullish wave above $4.4800. Analysts identify $4.6200 as the initial near-term target, with $4.7500 as the breakout barrier that would confirm further upside momentum. On the downside, $4.3800 serves as the first line of support, followed by the deeper cushion around $4.2600. The metal’s ability to hold above its 55-day moving average confirms that the trend bias remains tilted to the upside. If copper successfully pushes through the $4.62–$4.75 zone, the next price checkpoint could test $10,300 per ton on the LME, extending the bullish structure.

China’s Market Signals and Inventory Dynamics

Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined 2.4% this week, while the Yangshan import premium stayed firm at $55 per ton, its highest since June. This shows that despite weak Chinese manufacturing PMIs, physical demand for copper imports remains resilient. Chinese equities also closed their best month since September 2024, reflecting liquidity support from Beijing that could feed into commodity consumption. Still, surveys point to factory contraction for a fifth consecutive month in August, underscoring the fragility of the recovery. This divergence between liquidity-driven stock gains and weak factory activity remains one of the largest uncertainties for HG=F pricing.

Geopolitical Strains and Tariff Impact on HG=F Futures

Beyond economic fundamentals, copper’s volatility in 2025 has been amplified by geopolitics. The U.S. government’s Section 232 tariffs imposed a 50% levy on imported copper, causing a one-day surge in COMEX prices to $5.90 per pound earlier this year as arbitrage broke down. Major producers like Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to face regulatory instability—Chile’s mining royalty regime capped tax burdens at 46.5% while the DRC cracked down on ESG non-compliance, stripping licenses from nearly 30 operators. These disruptions have fractured supply chains, reinforcing copper’s role as a strategic geopolitical commodity in the decarbonization race.

Corporate Positioning and Insider Moves in Copper Majors

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO), and Hudbay Minerals (NYSE:HBM) are at the center of this copper cycle. FCX has benefited from U.S. jurisdictional stability, securing ESG-linked financing at lower capital costs compared to peers operating in Chile or Peru. Insider filings reveal selective profit-taking among executives at FCX as shares rallied alongside copper prices, though institutional demand remains robust with pension and ESG-focused funds increasing allocations. Companies with politically stable assets in North America and Australia are commanding valuation premiums, reinforcing that jurisdictional quality is now as critical as ore grade in copper valuations.

Marimaca’s Chilean Project Signals New Development Economics

Marimaca Copper recently released a definitive feasibility study showing capital intensity below $12,000 per tonne of copper equivalent, positioning it among the lowest-cost new developments globally. At a base copper price of $4.30 per pound, Marimaca projects a post-tax NPV of over $700 million with an IRR above 30%. Upside scenarios above $5 per pound push valuations past $1 billion. Plans call for initial 50,000-tonne annual production with scalability to 70,000 tonnes through deposits at Pampa Medina and Madrugador. Notably, Marimaca has hedged sulfuric acid cost volatility by securing an option to purchase a used acid plant, highlighting the importance of input cost control in heap leach operations.

Copper’s Structural Demand from Electrification and AI Data Centers

The International Energy Agency projects copper demand to double by 2040 as renewable energy, EVs, and data centers accelerate consumption. Each EV requires 80–85 kilograms of copper compared with 20–25 kilograms for internal combustion vehicles, while offshore wind turbines use 8–15 tons per megawatt. Meanwhile, AI data centers—now requiring up to 20x more power than standard computing systems—are driving a surge in copper-heavy electrical infrastructure. NVIDIA’s next-generation GPU clusters alone are expected to consume hundreds of thousands of tons of copper wiring and cooling infrastructure over the coming decade, a demand vector underappreciated by many forecasts.

Verdict on Copper (HG=F): Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Copper’s price at $4.59 per pound ($9,898/t) reflects optimism on U.S. growth and expectations of Fed easing, but risks remain tied to China’s fragile manufacturing sector and geopolitical trade frictions. With inventory drawdowns in Shanghai, strong $180 accumulation in equities like FCX, and technical momentum pointing to $4.62–$4.75 as the next test, the near-term bias is bullish. Goldman Sachs’ $9,700/t forecast appears conservative relative to structural electrification demand. On balance, HG=F remains a Buy, with positioning favoring upside toward $10,300 in the coming months as long as key supports above $4.38 hold.

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