CoreWeave Stock vs Nebius Stock: NASDAQ:CRWV Debt Strain Meets NBIS Microsoft Surge

CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) vs Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS): AI Infrastructure Rivals in a Capital-Intensive Race

The competition between CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) and Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS) defines the current stage of the AI infrastructure cycle. Both companies are growing at staggering speeds, signing multi-billion-dollar contracts with hyperscalers, and burning cash to finance massive GPU and data center expansion. Yet the two businesses are diverging in strategy, balance sheet strength, and risk profile.

Revenue Growth and Backlog: CRWV Explodes, NBIS Secures Microsoft

CoreWeave delivered a remarkable $1.213 billion in Q2 2025 revenue, up 207% year-over-year, its first billion-dollar quarter. Its revenue base is largely secured, with 98% locked into long-term contracts, and a backlog that swelled to $30.1 billion, nearly double a year earlier. This backlog is mostly anchored by expansions from existing AI labs and hyperscalers, proving stickiness of demand.

Nebius, while smaller on a quarterly revenue basis with $105.1 million in Q2 2025 sales, up 625% YoY, shocked the market with a $17.4 billion (expandable to $19.4 billion) five-year contract with Microsoft to provide GPU compute from its Vineland, NJ facility. That single deal alone is projected to reshape its trajectory, with potential run-rate revenues reaching $4–5 billion by 2027, versus the consensus expectation of just $3.1 billion before the contract.

Valuation: Premiums Compress but Still Diverge

At IPO, CRWV traded above 35x forward sales, a figure that collapsed to around 12x today after a near-50% drawdown, leaving its market cap at roughly $46 billion. Even at this lower multiple, CRWV trades at a premium to sector peers averaging 3–5x, justified by its backlog visibility.

Nebius commands an even higher valuation relative to revenue: its stock at $95.6 translates to a $22.8 billion market cap, or 61x trailing sales. Bulls argue the Microsoft contract validates the premium, with upside to $75–100 billion valuations if annual revenues hit $15 billion by 2030. But at current multiples, NBIS is already priced as if growth execution will be flawless.

Balance Sheet: CRWV Strained, NBIS Flexible

CoreWeave’s Achilles heel is its leverage. With $11 billion in debt, just $1.1 billion in cash, and interest rates as high as 15%, CRWV is on track for $1 billion in annual interest expenses — nearly 20% of projected 2025 revenue. Its massive $20–23 billion capex program requires new funding, and the September IPO lock-up expiry could weigh further on equity value if insiders continue to sell.

Nebius is in a stronger liquidity position, holding $1.68 billion in cash against $1.19 billion debt, with a current ratio of 14.7. This gives it more flexibility to scale into its Microsoft obligations without immediate refinancing pressure. However, as it ramps toward 1 gigawatt capacity, capex needs of $6–8 billion will still demand aggressive financing.

Customer Concentration and Contract Risk

For CoreWeave, one client still represents 72% of sales, a major concentration risk. While new enterprise clients in finance and healthcare are emerging, it will take years before they offset dependency on AI labs. If even one hyperscaler delays or renegotiates, CRWV’s revenue trajectory could be disrupted.

Nebius, despite diversification across ClickHouse, Avride, and Toloka, now faces a different concentration risk: its growth story is overwhelmingly tied to the Microsoft contract. Failure to deliver capacity on time, or shifts in Microsoft’s in-house build strategy, could expose NBIS to significant downside.

Strategic Differentiators: Software vs Infrastructure Integration

CoreWeave has pursued integration both up and down the stack. The acquisition of Weights & Biases and OpenPipe strengthens its developer-side appeal, embedding itself into AI workflows. On the infrastructure side, acquiring Core Scientific adds 1.3 gigawatts of gross power capacity and removes $10 billion in future lease liabilities, cementing control of powered shells and de-risking long-term supply.

Nebius differentiates through side investments. Its 28% stake in ClickHouse is valued between $600–900 million, while Toloka is already posting $50 million in run-rate revenue. Avride and TripleTen add potential optionality beyond cloud compute. But its true differentiator is access to Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra GPUs, which gave it the credibility to win the Microsoft deal.

Profitability and Margins

CRWV remains unprofitable under GAAP, with lean operating margins due to heavy lease expenses and depreciation. Interest expense further distorts the path to profitability. Adjusted EBITDA margins are strong, but less meaningful given the weight of debt service.

Nebius reported 97.7% trailing twelve-month net margins, but that figure was skewed by non-recurring gains. Adjusted EBITDA was still - $21 million in Q2, with $75 million in depreciation swallowing gross margin. Sustainable profitability will depend on hitting utilization rates on new capacity, something unproven at scale.

Technical Structure and Market Dynamics

CRWV trades with high volatility, bouncing from lows near $85 to above $92. Support sits at $87 and $76, resistance near $120 and IPO highs of $183. The lock-up expiry later this month remains the key trading catalyst.

NBIS surged nearly 49% in a single session after the Microsoft deal, hitting $98.68 before consolidating near $95.6. Technical support lies at $87 and $76, with breakout potential toward $176 if momentum persists. Trading volume jumped to 73 million shares, far above the 12 million average, signaling speculative inflows.

Insider Transactions and Institutional Confidence

Monitoring insider behavior is essential for both names. For CRWV, insider selling around the IPO has weighed heavily on sentiment, with investors watching CRWV insider activity for signs of confidence.

NBIS insiders currently hold about 4%, with institutional ownership near 43%. Investors will track NBIS insider transactions closely as the Microsoft deal ramps, since accumulation would validate long-term conviction.

Verdict: CRWV vs NBIS

CoreWeave and Nebius represent two different AI infrastructure bets. NASDAQ:CRWV offers scale, a $30.1 billion backlog, and vertical integration, but is constrained by debt, customer concentration, and financing risk. NASDAQ:NBIS is smaller in revenue today but armed with a transformational Microsoft contract and a cleaner balance sheet, trading at far higher multiples that demand flawless execution.

For aggressive traders, CRWV looks like a short-term Buy with target $120–130, while long-term holders should treat it as a Hold until leverage is addressed. NBIS, at $95.6, is a Buy on dips, reflecting asymmetric upside if Microsoft execution delivers, with medium-term targets stretching toward $176–300.

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