Ethereum (ETH-USD) Is Facing a Breakdown or a Deep Reset — Can It Reclaim $4K or Is $1,463 Next?
ETH-USD Is Showing Structural Fatigue Below $2,000
Ethereum’s price has cratered from its December 2024 high of $4,100 to a current level around $1,853 — a collapse exceeding 53% in barely three months. This isn’t a garden-variety dip. It’s a systematic erosion of investor confidence sparked by macro stress, internal structural selling, and ETF-driven outflows. ETH-USD has not only lost the key $2,200 support line that held since 2022, but also sits below its 200-day moving average near $3,000 — a major technical red flag. Every attempt to reclaim higher territory has failed. February’s short-lived bounce above $2,500 was crushed weeks later. Even the brief move above $1,900 is facing fresh selling pressure.
The ETF Catalyst Became a Weight
The much-anticipated Ethereum spot ETF approval in July 2024 — intended to mirror the bullish wave triggered by Bitcoin’s ETF debut — failed to deliver upside. Grayscale, long holding significant ETH exposure, used the ETF conversion window to dump massive amounts of ETH into the market. That created heavy sell pressure without the inflows needed to balance it. Since July, ETH has trailed Bitcoin significantly. While BTC is down roughly 25% from its highs, ETH-USD is down over 60% from its $4,891 peak in November 2021.
ETH vs BTC: Relative Weakness Accelerates
ETH/BTC’s ratio has collapsed from 0.056 in July 2024 to just 0.023 today. That’s a brutal 59% underperformance in nine months. A huge chunk of this decay happened in August 2024 when ETH plunged from $3,500 to $2,300 while BTC managed a softer correction. This trend has not reversed. Institutional preference for Bitcoin is rising, and ETF flows confirm it. ETH’s Coinbase Premium Index remains negative — a sign that U.S. institutional interest is drying up. For momentum to return, ETH needs this metric to flip green, indicating aggressive U.S. accumulation. Right now, it's doing the opposite.
DeFi Anchors the Ecosystem, but Not the Price
Ethereum still holds more than 50% of total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols — a signal that developers haven’t abandoned ship. However, DeFi TVL includes stablecoins like USDC, DAI, and USDT — not just ETH. This means that even as the Ethereum ecosystem remains dominant, price appreciation in the ETH-USD pair is no longer automatically linked to DeFi usage. Ethereum is still powering dApps and NFTs, but token demand is diluted.
$1,800: The Thin Ice Beneath Ethereum
ETH recently dropped below $1,800 before bouncing modestly. But the $1,800 level is not just another round number — it’s a critical liquidation trigger. Sky Vault, the borrower behind a $130M DeFi loan collateralized in ETH, was forced to deposit an additional 2,000 ETH to avoid liquidation. If ETH dips slightly lower, over 67,000 ETH could be automatically liquidated in a single event. That’s a short-term bearish avalanche waiting to happen. A slip below $1,790 might trigger cascading forced sales — pushing ETH-USD to $1,600 or worse.
Trading Pattern Hints at Bearish Breakdown Before Recovery
On the 4-hour chart, ETH-USD is forming a falling wedge — typically a bullish reversal pattern. But that pattern only resolves upward if buying pressure materializes. With RSI just crawling out of the oversold zone and volume still muted, the wedge risks breaking down. If $1,900 is reclaimed convincingly, ETH may target $2,100. If not, $1,600 and even $1,463 remain the most likely downside targets.
Macro Weakness Is Feeding Into Crypto Correlation
Risk assets across the board are suffering due to Trump’s trade war threats and broader global volatility. Ethereum, which has historically moved with equities during macro downturns, is deeply vulnerable here. The crypto market’s recent decoupling from tech stocks isn’t helping either. ETH-USD is behaving more like a speculative altcoin than a safe protocol play.
VanEck Still Sees $6,000 for ETH in 2025 — But How?
VanEck’s prediction of ETH reaching $6,000 in 2025 seems increasingly optimistic. The investment case hinges on several catalysts: ETH staking ETFs (yet to be approved), rate cuts in 2025 (not yet realized), and rising adoption of Ethereum 2.0. The PECTRA upgrade — combining Prague and Electra improvements — could improve scalability and lower gas fees, which would benefit ecosystem development. But these benefits need time to materialize. ETH’s short-term path is shaped more by liquidity stress than technological strength.
ETH Liquidation Pressure Tied to Ethereum Foundation Itself
The Ethereum Foundation is sitting on a potential ticking bomb. It deposited 50,000 ETH (over $95 million) into Aave for yield. If ETH continues to slip, that position nears liquidation too — a potential black swan. Justin Sun’s comment that leverage should be resolved “before it implodes” is a subtle warning. ETH needs to hold above $1,800 to prevent a chain reaction.
Technical Indicators Are Flashing Red
ETH-USD is trading far below its 200-day EMA. The RSI on daily and 4-hour charts shows weak attempts to exit oversold territory. MACD is still showing bearish divergence. The next strong support below $1,800 is at $1,600, then $1,463. Only a clear breakout above $2,100 can reset momentum. Without it, more blood is likely.
Outlook: What Comes Next for ETH-USD?
Even with Ethereum’s structural strengths — including Layer 2 growth (Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync) and future staking demand — price is currently disconnected from fundamentals. The next 30 days will test whether ETH can reclaim the $2,000 level. If not, market structure suggests $1,600 is not just possible but probable. Any further weakness from Bitcoin would only accelerate ETH’s pain. But if BTC finds a floor near $70,000 and ETF outflows from ETH slow, a rebound to $2,400 is plausible.
Verdict: Ethereum (ETH-USD) Is a HOLD Near $1,850 — But $1,600 Must Hold or Capitulation Begins
ETH is not a buy today unless the $1,900–$2,000 zone is reclaimed on strong volume. But it’s also not yet a sell — too many sellers have already exited. If $1,800 breaks with conviction, it’s a short-term sell to $1,600 or $1,463. But if ETH stabilizes and reverses above $2,100, that would flip the signal to a buy, targeting $2,700 then $3,000. Risk remains elevated — and the next liquidation wave could come fast. This is a crucial inflection point.
