
Ethereum Price Confronts Pivotal Support at $3,368 as Holder Accumulation and Whale Buying Collide
With on-chain metrics signaling weakening buy-side conviction and technical indicators flashing bearish momentum, ETH-USD braces at the SuperTrend floor even as DeFi activity and institutional flows provide a counterbalance | That's TradingNEWS
Accumulation Ratio Signals Looming Breakdown Below $3,000
Glassnode’s latest Holder Accumulation Ratio for ETH-USD plunged to 27.57 percent, its lowest reading in two months. This metric compares the share of wallets increasing balances to those whittling them down or standing pat. A drop to this level reveals that only about one in four active addresses are adding to their holdings, a stark reversal from the 40 percent-plus readings seen during June’s rally toward $3,940. As accumulation dries up, the buy-side liquidity that would normally cushion profit-taking evaporates, leaving prices vulnerable to further erosion. Over the past week, ETH slid from $3,750 to today’s $3,490, and if holders remain on the sidelines, the path of least resistance points toward the $3,067 pivot and even the $2,745 zone marked by last month’s low.
Whale Inflows and Unrealized Losses Reflect Shifting Sentiment
On-chain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence flagged an address that deployed over $300 million into ETH-USD via Galaxy Digital’s OTC desk at an average entry near $3,420. Within three days, the position has fallen by roughly $26 million, or 8.7 percent, sitting at a $274 million mark as of this morning. Such large-ticket accumulation despite weakening prices underscores an institutional confidence in Ethereum’s narrative, yet it also betrays the risks of market timing. When whales wade in, smaller traders often follow suit, amplifying momentum—both on the way up and on the way down. If that whale adds further during this dip, it could anchor the market around $3,300, but any swift liquidation risks cascading through derivative venues and pushing ETH-USD toward the lower support levels.
Mutuum Finance Presale Heightens Network Usage and Fee Pressure
Meanwhile, the DeFi universe on Ethereum is gaining fresh strength with the explosive presale of Mutuum Finance (MUTM). Phase 6 tokens priced at $0.035 mark a 16.7 percent uptick from the previous round and have attracted $13.9 million from over 14,800 investors. As ERC-20 protocols like MUTM prepare to launch USD-backed stablecoins and audited smart contracts, network demand and gas fees trend upward, adding a bullish undercurrent to Ethereum’s utility narrative. Sustained growth in DeFi activity can bolster miner and staker revenue, improving network security and reinforcing long-term valuation. If open interest and whale inflows coincide with a surge in Layer 2 transactions, ETH-USD may find renewed support above $3,700, inviting buyers to target $4,000 and beyond.
Technical Test at $3,400 Support and Bearish Momentum Indicators
TradingView’s Elder-Ray Index for ETH-USD has produced three consecutive red histogram bars, with today’s reading at -342.73—evidence of intensifying selling pressure that outstrips buying strength. This aligns with the breakdown from a descending channel on the four-hour chart, which first warned of a broader retracement from the mid-July peak. Yet Ethereum’s broader structural trend remains intact as long as $3,400–$3,368 holds. The SuperTrend indicator at $3,368 has so far prevented a decisive close below that level. A successful defense here would invite short-covering and margin-call buying, potentially igniting a rebound toward the $3,524 resistance. Failure to hold, however, leaves ETH-USD exposed to a slide toward $3,067 and even the psychological $3,000 threshold.
On-Chain Fundamentals and Exchange Outflows Signal Longer-Term Strength
Contrasting the short-term technical stress, on-chain metrics tell a more optimistic story. Over the past fortnight, net withdrawals from centralized exchanges exceeded one million ETH, a sign that investors are moving tokens into cold storage rather than trading them. Decentralized exchange volume has reclaimed its lead over rival blockchains on both 24-hour and 30-day bases, illustrating renewed developer and user confidence in Ethereum’s DeFi dominance. Institutional flows via ETFs and futures have ticked higher, suggesting that despite today’s pullback, the conviction among long-term holders remains robust.
Regulatory Tailwinds and ‘Project Crypto’ Could Accelerate Institutional Adoption
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee argues that the SEC’s “Project Crypto,” an initiative to migrate financial infrastructure onto blockchain rails, might usher Ethereum into an era akin to the AI revolution. Ethereum’s smart-contract versatility and regulatory resilience position ETH-USD as the default settlement layer for tokenized assets, stablecoins, and digital securities. With key platforms like JPMorgan and Robinhood reportedly building on Ethereum, and no network outages since 2015, institutional adoption could surge if “Project Crypto” advances. Should Wall Street firms ramp collateral, staking and tokenization on Ethereum, the fair-value peg for ETH could shift from the current $4,200 target toward the $5,000–$6,000 zone over the next year.
Ethereum now sits at a crossroads. If accumulation resumes and $3,400 holds, ETH may rally back above $4,000, validating the bullish thesis and inviting new money from DeFi protocols and institutional hands alike. If bearish momentum overwhelms that floor, the market must reevaluate near-term price objectives around $3,000. For traders, the bias hinges on the next technical boundary breach—but for strategic investors, ETH-USD remains a buy on weakness, with a target range of $4,200 to $5,000 as regulatory clarity and DeFi expansion converge.