Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD at $2,975: Smart Money Accumulates While ETFs Dump $600M

Eth-USD: structural squeeze between ETF outflows and onchain accumulation

Eth-USD daily structure: descending cap vs. $2,500 floor

ETH-USD is trading just under $3,000, with spot around $2,975–$2,981 after roughly a 5% rebound that reversed the CPI-driven dump. The daily chart is locked between a long-term descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance above and a static demand band around $2,500 below. Every push into the trendline is sold, every probe toward $2,500 has been absorbed. Volatility is compressed, direction is not yet resolved. A key intermediate reference is $2,620 near the lower edge of the current triangle. A clean break below $2,620 usually opens the door to $2,500 and then the deeper $2,400 stress zone. As long as ETH-USD holds above $2,500 and daily closes stay inside the triangle, the structure is consolidation, not a confirmed breakdown.

Eth-USD 4h price action: false breakdown and neutral rotation

On the four hour chart ETH-USD built a flag from local lows, briefly broke below that structure, then immediately reversed back inside it. That false breakdown flushed late shorts and triggered a sharp bounce back toward the $3,000 area. The move showed how sensitive the market is to liquidity pockets, but it did not morph into a clean impulsive uptrend. Each push higher has stalled under the confluence of lower-time-frame flag resistance, the daily descending trendline and the 20 day EMA. Short term this tape is neutral to bullish, not fully trending. Bears failed to extend the downside below the flag and triangle base, bulls have not yet printed a decisive higher high through those layered resistance zones.

Eth-USD derivatives positioning: taker ratios, open interest and the 15x short

Derivatives data explains the latest bounce in ETH-USD. The Taker Buy Sell Ratio in perpetual swaps recovered from 0.906 on Tuesday to 1.05 on Friday, the highest since early December. A ratio below one showed aggressive sellers dominating; flipping back above one means market orders are now skewed toward aggressive buys. At the same time open interest in ETH futures increased by about 400,000 ETH as price pushed back toward $2,980, confirming fresh leveraged risk coming in on the long side. In parallel one large address opened a short of 35,221 ETH at roughly $3,332.52 with 15 times leverage, about $105M notional, currently sitting on about $12.55M of floating profit and roughly $3.14M in funding income. The liquidation line on that position is around $3,855.54, which becomes a clear pain point if ETH-USD ever sustains a move through the mid $3,000s. Net result is a market where derivatives flows lean bullish again, but a large concentrated short can either amplify a downside rejection or become fuel for a squeeze if price reclaims the $3,200 to $3,470 corridor.

Eth-USD spot flows: ETF outflows and Coinbase discount

While derivatives turned constructive the U.S. spot picture is still negative for ETH-USD. The Coinbase Premium Index remains below zero, meaning ETH trades cheaper on Coinbase Pro than on Binance and signalling that U.S. desks are not leading the buy side. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have posted six consecutive days of net outflows since December 11, with cumulative redemptions above $630M. One large product alone saw around $467M leave in a week while ETH-USD traded around the $2,800 zone. That pattern caps rallies. Each time ETH-USD approaches resistance bands around $3,100, $3,200 and the $3,447 to $3,470 region, ETF selling and weak U.S. spot demand can stall the move unless derivatives and offshore flows overpower the outflows.

Onchain Eth-USD signals: wallet surge and 9 year low exchange supply

Onchain data explains why ETH-USD has not collapsed despite ETF pressure. New Ethereum wallet creation has exploded. On December 2 the network saw more than 197,000 new addresses in a single day, breaking earlier highs. The current average has climbed to about 163,000 new addresses per day, up from roughly 124,000 in July. At the same time exchange balances of ETH have fallen to a nine year low as coins move into self custody or staking rather than sitting on centralized venues. That combination of rising unique addresses and falling exchange supply is a classic late accumulation pattern. Structural sell side inventory is shrinking while new participants and previously inactive users re engage. That is one of the main reasons repeated attempts to drive ETH-USD through $2,500 have failed so far.

Key Eth-USD levels: $2,500 floor, $2,772 pivot and upside bands

The different analyses converge on a tight map of critical ETH-USD levels. The $2,500 area is the hard higher time frame floor where multiple selloffs have been absorbed; a decisive break there opens a path toward the $2,400 stress area. The $2,620 zone marks interim support at the triangle base and usually comes first on any breakdown. The $2,772 benchmark is a crucial pivot. Holding above that threshold keeps the structure constructive; losing it signals that a deeper correction is underway. The $2,850 region is a tactical magnet, with dips toward $2,850 followed by a bounce framed as attractive long setups. The $2,950 band has been identified as the likely local bottom or very close to it, so oscillation around $2,950 without rejection keeps the bull case intact. On the upside the $3,000 to $3,100 region is the first resistance cluster; reclaiming it cleanly opens room to $3,200. Above that, the $3,447 to $3,470 band aligns with the upper edge of the multi week triangle and the 50, 100 and 200 day EMAs. That is the key breakout layer for ETH-USD. A sustained push through it brings the previously suggested $3,700 scenario onto the table.

Whales around Eth-USD: Hayes flows and leveraged positioning

Large holders are active around ETH-USD, but their behavior is not that of a market giving up on the asset. Arthur Hayes transferred 508.647 ETH, about $1.5M, to a Galaxy Digital deposit address at roughly $2,981 as the overall crypto market lost about $300B of capitalization in seven days, around an eight percent drawdown. Onchain portfolio data still shows approximately $13.4M in ETH, $9.26M in EETH and $3.75M in WEETH for him, meaning about thirty four percent of his portfolio is tied to Ethereum related exposure. Public comments from him are clear. He expects further corrections but wants to accumulate altcoins, especially ETH, on dips and on the same day he mentioned his family office loading up on what he calls high quality altcoins. In that context the 508.647 ETH transfer is a portfolio management move rather than capitulation. At the same time the 35,221 ETH short at fifteen times leverage from $3,332.52 shows another side of large player activity. Sophisticated traders are aggressively shorting spikes with tight risk lines and a clearly defined liquidation trigger just below $3,900. If ETH-USD eventually pushes through $3,447 to $3,470 and into the $3,700 area that short begins to hurt and can provide forced buying pressure. The overall message from whales is not exit but tactical rotation, using both sides of the book while maintaining significant net ETH exposure.

Eth-USD liquidations, indicators and the 20 day ema test

The five percent gain in ETH-USD on Friday came with about $56M in liquidations over twelve hours, of which around $42.8M were short positions. That clean up happened exactly at the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle that started in late November and as price challenged the 20 day EMA again. The relative strength index is sitting around its neutral band and testing its moving average, not yet stretched either way. The stochastic oscillator has left oversold territory and turned up but remains far from extreme levels. That cluster of signals fits a reload zone more than a blow off. Shorts have been reset, momentum indicators are neutral to mildly constructive, and ETH-USD is trying to reclaim the 20 day EMA from below. A firm close above that EMA followed by a push through the higher moving averages and the triangle top would bring the $3,447 to $3,470 resistance into play quickly. Failure at the 20 day EMA combined with a move back through $2,772 and then $2,620 would put the $2,500 to $2,400 downside scenario back on the table and break the current bullish case.

Eth-USD stance: tactical bias and invalidation line

Putting the data together ETH-USD does not justify a sell call while it trades around $2,975 to $2,981 and continues to hold above the $2,772 pivot and $2,500 structural floor. U.S. spot demand is weak and ETF outflows have exceeded $600M, but onchain metrics show strong address growth and exchange supply at a nine year low, while derivatives metrics such as the Taker Buy Sell Ratio and futures open interest have turned bullish again. That combination supports a bullish stance as long as the key floors hold. From a trading decision perspective ETH-USD is a tactical buy with a bullish bias above $2,500 and especially above $2,772. The upside roadmap is reclaiming $3,000 to $3,100, extending to $3,200, then attacking $3,447 to $3,470 and potentially $3,700 if ETF flows stabilise. The downside invalidation is a decisive break and daily close below $2,500 with continuation toward $2,400, which would shift ETH-USD from buy to sell and confirm that structural buyers have stepped aside.

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