Ethereum Price Forecast – Next Move Hinges on $4,500 Breakout

ETH-USD Tests $4,400 Resistance as Long-Term Holders Trim Positions

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is struggling to build momentum above $4,400 after repeated rejections, trading near $4,294 with support anchored at $4,222. Long-term holders have started booking profits, as shown by the LTH Net Unrealized Profit and Loss ratio at 0.65 and the Coin Days Destroyed indicator, both signaling elevated profit-taking activity. Historically, these spikes align with local tops, which has left ETH vulnerable to consolidation. Unless offset by new inflows, this selling could cap upside potential in the short term.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Activity Provide Underlying Support for ETH-USD

Despite recent price hesitation, Ethereum has benefited from roughly $450 million in institutional ETF inflows led by BlackRock and other major issuers. These flows are critical as they validate ETH as an investable asset in traditional finance, drawing retail investors to follow institutional positioning. Treasury moves, such as BitMine adding over 14,600 ETH (~$65 million) to its reserves, reinforce the long-term accumulation narrative. ETF participation has been pivotal in anchoring ETH above $4,200 even during bouts of profit-taking by whales and long-term holders.

Whale Accumulation Signals Confidence Around $4,000 Support Zone

On-chain data reveals that whale addresses have been steadily accumulating ETH during pullbacks, a pattern historically preceding sharp rallies. The $3,800–$4,000 demand zone remains the critical accumulation base. If ETH-USD defends this support, it strengthens the likelihood of another breakout attempt toward $4,500. Failure to defend the zone risks cascading liquidations, as leveraged long positions could unwind, exposing downside targets near $3,600.

Technical Compression Between $4,200 and $4,500 Creates Breakout Setup

Ethereum is caught in a compressed range, with $4,200 serving as key support and $4,500 as immediate resistance. The daily structure still respects the ascending channel formed earlier in the year, but the four-hour chart highlights ETH’s rejection near $4,900 and subsequent trading inside a descending channel. The $4,490 ceiling aligns with dense short liquidation clusters, meaning a breakout above it could trigger forced covering and push ETH toward $4,665 and $4,865. Conversely, losing $4,200 would likely accelerate downside volatility into $4,070 and the 200-day moving average at $3,872.

Long-Term Price Targets Suggest Cycle Highs If Resistance Breaks

Analysts tracking ETH’s path expect that once $4,550 flips into support, Ethereum could extend gains toward $5,800–$6,000 by year-end. Some models place extended upside toward $7,000 if ETF demand and whale accumulation persist. Meanwhile, downside scenarios remain tied to sustained selling from long-term holders, which could trap ETH in a $4,222–$4,500 range until liquidity from institutional buyers absorbs the supply.

Ethereum’s Position in DeFi and Layer-2 Growth Adds Macro Tailwind

Beyond price action, Ethereum continues to dominate DeFi with over $90 billion in total value locked and leads the stablecoin ecosystem with $150 billion circulating on its network. This unmatched positioning ensures ETH remains the backbone of blockchain finance. Upcoming scaling upgrades and Layer-2 adoption strengthen the case for long-term resilience, aligning with institutional allocations that increasingly treat ETH as a core smart contract asset rather than a speculative trade.

That's TradingNEWS