Gold Price Forecast - Gold Near Record Highs: XAU/USD Holds $4,6K as Bulls Target the $5K Zone

Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Holds Above $4,600 And Quietly Aims At $5,000

Gold (XAU/USD) trades in the $4,620–$4,640 band after bouncing from the $4,580 area. February futures recently changed hands near $4,621.50, slightly below the record high around $4,650.50. The market is chopping intraday, but every dip toward $4,580–$4,600 finds buyers. That behaviour, combined with the fact that Iran risk is easing and U.S. data remain firm, signals a structural repricing of gold rather than a short-lived panic spike.

Spot Action And Short-Term Tape In XAU/USD

Intraday, XAU/USD sells off briefly under $4,600 and then snaps back, leaving long lower wicks around the $4,580 zone. The European session saw a clean recovery back above $4,600 even as the dollar held firm. Technically, the immediate battle lines sit at $4,580 as first support and $4,650–$4,675 as the resistance band that guards new all-time highs. As long as the market respects $4,580 and refuses to trade aggressively below it, the structure remains a pause near the highs, not a topping pattern.

Chinese Pricing: RMB Gold +58% Vs XAU/USD +67% In 2025

In China, the RMB gold benchmark delivered its strongest annual performance since the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened in 2002, with local prices jumping about 58%. In dollar terms, the LBMA gold benchmark surged roughly 67%, the best year since 1979. A stronger yuan versus the dollar trimmed the local gain, but global investors saw a full-blown re-rating of XAU/USD from the old $2,000–$2,500 regime toward the current $4,400–$4,700 zone. Gold is now priced as a core macro hedge, not a fringe allocation.

Wholesale Gold Demand In China: 1,298t Withdrawals, –11% YoY

Physical Chinese demand is softening under the weight of high prices and tax changes. Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange totalled about 1,298 tonnes in 2025, down 11% year-on-year and 28% below the ten-year average. December shipments reached around 115 tonnes, 36% higher than November thanks to seasonal year-end restocking and a brief pause in the price surge, but still 6% below the prior year. High XAU/USD levels and VAT reform on jewellery keep mass-market buying under pressure, shifting the demand engine away from ornaments and towards investment channels.

Chinese Gold ETFs: RMB242bn AUM, 248t Holdings, AUM +243%

Chinese investors have turned gold ETFs into a major pricing force. In 2025 they bought roughly RMB112bn of ETF exposure, about US$15.5bn or 133 tonnes. December alone added RMB3.9bn (around US$545m, 3.8 tonnes). By year-end, gold ETF assets reached roughly RMB242bn (about US$34.6bn), a 243% jump from 2024, while holdings more than doubled to about 248 tonnes. That shift means XAU/USD is increasingly driven by balance sheet allocation decisions and less by jewellery counters. The same ETF flows that propelled prices higher can produce sharp corrections if sentiment turns.

Gold Futures Activity In China: 457t Per Day, +52% Year-On-Year

Speculative and hedging activity in Chinese futures has exploded. At the Shanghai Futures Exchange, average daily gold volume in 2025 reached about 457 tonnes, up 52% versus the prior year. December averaged roughly 390 tonnes per day, still far above the five-year mean near 216 tonnes. High volume around record prices confirms that both hedgers and directional traders are actively using futures to express views on XAU/USD. Elevated turnover amplifies intraday volatility but also deepens liquidity, allowing large positions to rotate quickly around key levels such as $4,400, $4,500 and $4,700.

PBoC Gold Accumulation: 14 Straight Months, 2,306t And 8.5% Of Reserves

The People’s Bank of China has behaved like a structural insider buyer. It reported gold purchases for 14 consecutive months, adding about 0.9 tonnes in December and roughly 27 tonnes in 2025 overall. Official holdings now stand near 2,306 tonnes, representing about 8.5% of total foreign exchange reserves. Regularly publicised buying has likely encouraged domestic investors to follow the central bank into bullion and ETF products. For XAU/USD, that official bid removes metal from the free float and raises the floor under prices every time the market tests support.

Gold As A Debasement And Confidence Trade Rather Than Just An Inflation Hedge

The current narrative around gold is centred on debasement and institutional confidence rather than pure inflation hedging. Analysts argue that a move toward $5,000 per ounce is fundamentally achievable given recent volatility and the starting point above $4,500. The driver is not runaway CPI but concern about fiscal sustainability, debt trajectories and the durability of trust in U.S. institutions. This is the logic behind the “debasement trade”: gold is being used to hedge the risk that fiat purchasing power erodes structurally over time, even if headline inflation moderates.

Federal Reserve Politics, Powell And The XAU/USD Confidence Premium

Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is now a direct input into gold pricing. The Trump administration has attacked the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell, raising questions about independence. At the same time, Trump has recently stated that he does not currently plan to fire Powell, calling it too early to make that judgment while a Justice Department probe proceeds. This “bent but not broken” independence keeps a premium embedded in XAU/USD: the market cannot assume clean insulation between politics and monetary policy, so gold remains a hedge against institutional interference.

Sovereign Debt Risk And Gold As Primary Hedge In 2026

Macro research highlights sovereign debt and fiscal stress as a potential shock point for the next phase of the cycle. With debt ratios elevated and refinancing risk rising, gold is being positioned as a primary hedge and performance driver for 2026 rather than a passive store of value. A 67% gain for XAU/USD in 2025, together with forecasts that the metal will not revisit $2,000 in any normal scenario, reflects that repricing. Strategic views now anchor around a higher long-term range where $4,000–$5,000 is treated as a working band, not an outlier.

Technical Structure Of XAU/USD: Trend, Momentum And Volatility

On the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades near $4,620 with a classic post-breakout profile. Price sits above the 20, 50, 100 and 200 exponential moving averages, leaving a clean bullish alignment rather than a sideways range. The RSI prints around 60, with a mild bearish divergence against price, which indicates that upside momentum is cooling but not reversing. The MACD line has crossed below the signal on this timeframe, signalling a slowdown in upside impulse while the broader trend remains pointed higher. Volatility remains elevated after the surge to new highs.

Key Support Zones For XAU/USD: $4,580, $4,500, $4,472 And $4,400

Support is layered in clearly defined steps. The first intraday floor sits in the $4,580–$4,600 band, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in. A break beneath that area would expose the prior breakout region just below $4,500, which now acts as structural support. The next deeper reference is the 100-period moving average around $4,472.74, followed by the major medium-term floor at $4,400, described by technicians as solid support. As long as XAU/USD remains above $4,400 on a closing basis, the pattern is best interpreted as consolidation in an ongoing uptrend rather than a top.

Upside Targets For XAU/USD: $4,650–$4,675, $4,689–$4,763, $4,750 And $5,000

On the upside, the roadmap is equally clear. The first resistance zone runs through the record high near $4,650.50 and the nearby $4,675 area. Above that, Fibonacci extensions of the January 8–12 rally highlight $4,689 at the 127.2% level and $4,763 at the 161.8% level as logical acceleration points. February futures traders focus on $4,750 as the next major resistance to clear on a closing basis. Beyond those levels, a larger measured move from the recent ascending structure points toward the $4,900 zone, and the psychological magnet for this cycle is the round $5,000 handle.

Dollar, Yields And The Macro Backdrop Behind XAU/USD

The macro environment is not built on panic, which makes gold’s elevation more telling. The U.S. dollar index is modestly higher rather than collapsing, and the 10-year Treasury yield trades near 4.14%, with the curve still inverted but not steepening into crisis. Weekly U.S. jobless claims have undershot expectations, pointing to a labour market that is cooling gradually rather than breaking. Under a traditional framework, a firmer dollar and yields above 4% would restrain XAU/USD, yet gold is holding above $4,600, confirming that structural demand is overpowering these usual headwinds.

Oil, Iran Tensions And The Safe-Haven Role Of XAU/USD

Crude oil trades around $60 after a sharp drop driven by profit-taking and signs that Trump is backing away from an immediate military strike on Iran. Gold normally hands back some safe-haven premium when oil falls on easing geopolitical risk, yet XAU/USD is still parked near its highs in the $4,620–$4,640 region. The market is signalling that the current rally is not just a war-risk spike; it is anchored in monetary and institutional concerns that persist even when front-page geopolitical tensions cool.

Silver, PGMs And Relative Value Inside The Precious Metals Complex

Silver has outperformed on a percentage basis during the latest leg. March silver futures trade around $91.055 after testing record territory near $93.70, with chart projections that point toward the $100 mark if the trend persists. Analysts also highlight that platinum-group metals may now offer a stronger risk-reward profile than gold and silver from here. For XAU/USD, this relative value rotation matters at the margin: some capital may look to PGMs or silver for higher upside, but the fact that the entire complex is bid supports gold’s status as the liquid anchor of the trade.

Central Banks As Structural “Insiders” In XAU/USD

Central banks are behaving like strategic insiders within the gold market. The PBoC’s 27-tonne annual addition and 2,306-tonne total stockpile are part of a broader pattern where official institutions accumulate bullion as long-term reserve insurance. They rarely dump metal into strength and typically add on dips or amid political uncertainty. That behaviour shrinks the freely tradable float available to other market participants and provides a slow, persistent bid under XAU/USD, especially during episodes where speculative or ETF flows turn volatile.

ETFs, Institutions And The New Ownership Structure Of XAU/USD

Physically backed ETFs and institutional portfolios now hold a substantial share of above-ground investable gold. The Chinese ETF numbers—RMB242bn of AUM and 248 tonnes of metal after a 243% AUM jump—illustrate how quickly ownership has shifted from retail jewellery to financial wrappers. Globally, similar products in the U.S. and Europe mirror that dynamic. This new structure makes XAU/USD respond more rapidly to changes in portfolio risk appetite, risk-parity positioning and macro views, while also deepening the pool of capital that can move into gold when confidence in fiat assets drops.

Risk Map For XAU/USD At $4,600–$4,700

Even with a strong bull case, the risk profile around current levels is explicit. A sentiment recovery in favour of U.S. institutions and the dollar could compress the debasement premium embedded in gold. After record inflows and large ETF holdings, even a modest rotation from buying to flat or small net outflows would weigh on price. Technically, a decisive break below $4,580, then below $4,500 and finally under $4,400 would trigger systematic selling from trend followers and leveraged strategies. Relative opportunities in PGMs, silver or high-yielding assets could also divert incremental capital away from XAU/USD.

Verdict On Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish Bias And A Buy With $4,400 As The Line In The Sand

The combined picture—spot around $4,620–$4,640, a 67% dollar gain last year, weaker Chinese jewellery but booming ETF and futures activity, 2,306 tonnes of official Chinese reserves, clearly defined support at $4,580, $4,500, $4,472 and $4,400, upside levels at $4,650–$4,675, $4,689, $4,763 and a larger target band around $4,900–$5,000, plus a macro backdrop driven by sovereign-debt concerns and Fed-independence risk—points in one direction. The bias for XAU/USD is bullish, and the stance is Buy on a multi-month horizon, with the best entries on pullbacks toward the $4,500–$4,400 region. A weekly close below $4,400 would invalidate this view and downgrade gold to a Hold, opening the door to deeper mean reversion.

That's TradingNEWS