Gold Price Rises 2.37% to $3,416 Amid Weak US Jobs Data and Trade Uncertainty

Gold’s Recent Surge and Key Price Metrics

Gold futures (XAU/USD) climbed 2.37 percent over the past week, closing at $3 416 per ounce on Friday, August 1. Earlier in the session, the yellow metal traded around $3 399.80, up $51.20 on the day—its strongest daily advance since mid-July. Intraday swings saw XAU/USD fluctuate between $3 331.40 and $3 416.90, reflecting heightened safe-haven demand as U.S. trade tensions resurfaced and July payrolls disappointed at just 187 000 jobs added versus the 210 000 forecast. On a year-over-year basis, gold remains up roughly 34 percent, a testament to its resilience amid rising inflation and currency volatility. Market consensus now sees gold trading between $3 300 and $3 430 near term, with analysts at JP Morgan projecting an average of $3 675 by late 2025 and a push toward $4 000 by mid-2026.

Macro Drivers: Fed Rate-Cut Expectations and Trade Uncertainty

The softer-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls report amplified rate-cut speculation, driving the CME FedWatch Tool’s September cut odds above 75 percent. As real wages struggle and headline inflation holds above 3 percent, investors have turned to gold as a hedge against monetary easing. Simultaneously, President Trump’s talk of fresh reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners has rattled equities, prompting fund managers to reallocate roughly $1.8 billion into SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) over the past two weeks—the heaviest two-week inflow since April—per LSEG data. Geopolitical flashpoints from the South China Sea to Eastern Europe have further underpinned bullion’s allure as a store of value unencumbered by any sovereign balance sheet.

Technical Landscape: Support at $3 350, Resistance Near $3 450

From a chart-based perspective, XAU/USD has broken out above its 14-day moving average at $3 375, testing the upper boundary of its ascending channel. The next hurdle resides at $3 450, the May high, while immediate support lies at $3 350—the mid-July consolidation pivot. Relative Strength Index readings around 64 suggest modest overbought pressure is building but leave room for further gains before corrective retracement. Trading volumes have swelled by over 20 percent week-on-week, underscoring institutional participation and validating this week’s breakout move.

Central Bank Buying and Official Reserves

Emerging market central banks have accumulated 310 tonnes of gold in H1 2025, surpassing quarterly pace from the last five years. China added 40 tonnes in July alone, bringing its total official reserves to 1 070 tonnes—just shy of Germany’s 3 360 tonnes at the Bundesbank. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s vault in New York currently houses approximately 13.4 million fine troy ounces (about 416 tonnes) belonging to foreign governments; Fort Knox holds 147.3 million ounces (4 583 tonnes) of domestic reserves. These central bank flows have provided a structural bid under prices even as private investors cycled profits out of gold ETFs earlier in the summer.

Mining Supply and Cost Dynamics

Global gold mine output is forecast to grow just 1.2 percent to 3 330 tonnes in 2025, per the World Gold Council, as high-grade deposit depletion and rising energy costs at key producers like Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX, NYSE: GOLD) keep supply in check. All-in sustaining costs averaged $1 150 per ounce in Q2, leaving a margin cushion of over $2 200 at current spot prices. However, a stronger U.S. dollar or renewed Fed hawkishness could push producers to hedge more of their forward production, potentially capping upside.

Insider Transactions and ETF Flows

Major bullion banks reported that senior gold executives at leading producers increased personal off-market purchases in July—insider filings show over 50 000 ounces acquired, the largest such accumulation since 2019. Simultaneously, U.S. spot gold ETFs registered $1.1 billion of net inflows in the last five trading days, reversing a month-long exodus. This confluence of insider buying and institutional fund inflows highlights growing confidence in gold’s near-term trajectory.

Recommendation: Buy on Dips, Target $3 600–$3 800

Given gold’s technical breakout, sustained central bank demand, compressed mine supply growth, and dovish Fed expectations, positioning for further appreciation in XAU/USD remains prudent. Traders should look to add on retracements toward $3 350, with a tactical target zone of $3 600–$3 800 over the next three months. Maintaining stops below $3 330 will control risk should macro sentiment unexpectedly pivot. Longer-term investors can hold outright bullion exposure for a potential push above $4 000 as global monetary easing intensifies.

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