Gold Price Rally Pauses as Investors Await Key Economic Data – Is XAU/USD Set to Break $3,000?
XAU/USD Holds Near Record Highs as Market Awaits US Jobs Data
Gold prices have surged over 12% year-to-date, with XAU/USD currently trading around $2,915 per ounce, just below the all-time high of $2,956 set in late February. The bullish momentum has been fueled by growing fears of a trade war, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policy expectations. As markets digest US Federal Reserve rate cut bets and increased global economic uncertainty, gold has solidified its status as the preferred safe-haven asset.
Despite a slight pullback from recent highs, XAU/USD remains firmly in an uptrend, with investors awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next move. If the jobs report signals economic weakness, gold could get another boost, potentially testing $3,000 per ounce in the coming weeks.
US Economic Data Weighs on the Dollar, Strengthening Gold’s Appeal
One of the biggest drivers behind gold’s bullish run has been the decline in US economic strength, with recent data pointing to a slowing labor market and weaker-than-expected growth. The ADP private payrolls report showed only 77,000 jobs added in February, significantly below the forecast of 140,000, raising concerns that Friday’s NFP report could also disappoint.
At the same time, US inflation remains sticky, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Fed rate cuts in the near term. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a one-week high, limiting some of gold’s upside momentum, but the broader picture still favors higher gold prices. Investors are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, which could weaken the US dollar (DXY) further and push XAU/USD higher.
Adding to gold’s appeal is the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies. President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs has raised concerns about global economic stability, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets. While Trump temporarily exempted automakers in Canada and Mexico from the new 25% tariffs, markets remain cautious about the escalating trade war with China and potential retaliatory measures.
Gold Technical Outlook – Can XAU/USD Hold Above $2,900 and Extend Higher?
Gold prices remain in a strong uptrend, but the market is seeing some consolidation around the $2,900 level, where key technical support lies. The 200-day moving average (SMA) at $2,883 serves as an important downside level, while the immediate resistance stands at $2,934.
- If gold breaks above $2,934, it could retest the record high of $2,956 and push toward the psychological level of $3,000.
- A failure to hold $2,900 could trigger a correction toward $2,860 – $2,858, but this would likely be seen as a buying opportunity.
Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain elevated but have yet to signal overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print rising green bars, confirming that buyers are still in control.
Gold’s Long-Term Outlook – Can XAU/USD Hit $3,300?
With increasing global debt, trade war risks, and shifting monetary policy expectations, the case for gold remains exceptionally strong. Analysts are eyeing $3,000 as the next major target, and some projections even suggest that if geopolitical tensions escalate further, gold could see an extended rally toward $3,300.
However, much will depend on Friday’s NFP report and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could push XAU/USD toward new highs, while a stronger labor market reading could trigger a short-term pullback. Nonetheless, the long-term trend remains decisively bullish, with gold positioned as one of the strongest assets in 2024.
