Nvidia Stock Price Forecast – NASDAQ:NVDA Price at $171 Momentum Fueled by AI Boom and Record $26B Profit

NASDAQ:NVDA Stock Analysis – AI Growth, China Risk, and Record Profits Define Nvidia’s Path

AI Infrastructure Spending Keeps NASDAQ:NVDA at the Center of Global Growth

Nvidia Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA is trading near $171, stabilizing after a volatile earnings season that initially pressured shares but ultimately reaffirmed its role as the backbone of the artificial intelligence build-out. The company reported Q2 revenue of $46.74 billion, up 56% year-over-year, while net income surged 59% to $26.42 billion, cementing Nvidia as the most profitable name in semiconductors. Wall Street had expected softer numbers following export restrictions to China, yet Nvidia delivered quarterly earnings of $1.05 per share, above estimates of $1.01, marking its fourth consecutive earnings beat. Guidance for Q3 revenue stands at $54 billion, a 54% increase from last year, even before factoring in potential China sales. CEO Jensen Huang stressed that AI infrastructure spending could total $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade, positioning NVDA to capture outsized market share across hyperscaler and enterprise demand.

Data Center and Blackwell GPU Ramp Support Aggressive Revenue Expansion

The data center business remains the dominant revenue engine, scaling from $3 billion in fiscal 2020 to $115 billion by fiscal 2025. Nvidia has grown AI revenue at a run rate of roughly $4 billion per quarter, with Q3 guidance implying an even sharper $7 billion acceleration as the Blackwell Ultra GPUs ramp in volume. At a price point estimated around $30,000 each, Nvidia is shipping nearly 72,000 Blackwell units per week to hyperscalers including Meta and Google, both of which raised their data center spending guidance this summer by $7 billion and $10 billion respectively to secure Nvidia’s GPUs. Networking revenues have reached a $10 billion annual run rate, driven by Ethernet adoption alongside proprietary InfiniBand. Nvidia’s NVLink interconnect technology continues to lock in hyperscalers to its ecosystem, ensuring customer stickiness and reinforcing its software moat via CUDA.

China Uncertainty Could Cap Growth but U.S. Demand Keeps Outlook Strong

China remains both an opportunity and a risk. The Trump administration’s block earlier this year on Nvidia’s H20 chip shipments temporarily erased what was projected to be up to $16 billion in 2025 revenue from the region. The company excluded China entirely from its Q3 forecast, underscoring the geopolitical overhang. However, following direct negotiations in Beijing, partial approvals may clear $2 billion to $5 billion in China revenue for the coming quarter if modified Blackwell chips receive licenses. Jensen Huang noted that the Chinese AI market represents a $50 billion annual opportunity, growing 50% year-over-year, but stressed that Nvidia is prepared to serve global demand even if China remains restricted. The company’s U.S. exposure, by contrast, continues to expand, offsetting the China risk.

Financial Strength Supports $60 Billion Buyback and Expansion

Nvidia’s balance sheet highlights unmatched strength. With $57 billion in cash against only $8.5 billion in long-term debt, the company retains vast flexibility to fund growth, maintain R&D, and return capital. The board authorized a $60 billion stock repurchase program, equal to nearly 1.5% of its $4.15 trillion market capitalization. This repurchase program, paired with a modest dividend yield of 0.02%, signals management confidence that forward growth will sustain momentum. Analysts forecast FY2026 revenue at $206 billion, climbing to $272 billion by FY2027 if AI infrastructure spending materializes as projected. EPS is expected to rise from $4.48 in FY2026 to $6.33 in FY2027, with some bullish models calling for earnings above $7.50 under optimal Blackwell supply conditions.

Valuation, Risks, and Insider Sentiment

At $171 per share, NVDA trades at a trailing P/E of 48.5x and forward multiples around 36x FY2026 earnings. Despite appearing stretched relative to historic averages, Nvidia’s PEG ratio near 1.0 suggests growth-adjusted valuation is reasonable compared to AMD and Broadcom, which trade at higher multiples with slower expected growth. Risks remain concentrated in supply chain execution, AI spending concentration among a handful of hyperscalers, and competitive encroachment from AMD’s MI300 GPUs or custom silicon from Alphabet and Amazon. Export policy to China remains the largest wildcard, capable of swinging revenue forecasts by tens of billions annually. Insider activity linked here shows modest selling from executives earlier this year during the parabolic rally, though institutional inflows have accelerated with ETFs and mutual funds increasing allocations.

Gaming, Automotive, and Software Ecosystem Add Optionality

While AI dominates headlines, Nvidia’s legacy gaming unit remains robust with revenue modeled at $18 billion in FY2026, with upside toward $31 billion by 2030 as PC CPU launches and GPU refresh cycles continue. The automotive business, though small at $2.6 billion in FY2026, is projected to scale at a 20% CAGR to $10.8 billion by 2035 as autonomous driving and ADAS systems demand higher compute. Nvidia’s CUDA software ecosystem, alongside the emerging AI Enterprise and Omniverse platforms, further deepen switching costs for customers and provide recurring revenue opportunities beyond hardware.

Final View – NASDAQ:NVDA Verdict

Nvidia remains the undisputed leader of the AI infrastructure cycle, and at $171 per share the stock continues to represent a growth story supported by $46.7 billion in quarterly revenue, $26.4 billion profit, $60 billion in authorized buybacks, and unmatched exposure to a $3–4 trillion AI capex buildout. Risks in China and cyclical volatility are real, but the company’s wide moat, fortress balance sheet, and accelerating Blackwell adoption support a Buy rating with upside targets of $200–$225 over the next twelve months if execution remains on track and China approvals materialize.

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