Nvidia Stock Price Forecast - NVDA Near $187: Why NVDA’s AI Runway Still Points Toward $300

NASDAQ:NVDA – $187 AI core stock, not priced like a bubble

NASDAQ:NVDA trades around $187.15, down roughly 1% on the day, versus a 52-week band of $86.63–$212.19 and a market value above $4.5 trillion. The trailing P/E sits near 46x, but on forward numbers the market is paying roughly 24–40x earnings for a company compounding revenue and EPS at 40–60% with sector-leading margins. That is only a low-single-digit premium to the S&P 500 despite much stronger growth and profitability. For real-time action you can track NASDAQ:NVDA here: NVDA STOCK REAL TIME

Earnings momentum: $57B quarter, 12 straight beats and 74% gross margin

The latest fiscal Q3 2026 report delivered about $57 billion in revenue, up roughly 62–65% year-on-year, and extended NASDAQ:NVDA’s streak to 12 consecutive double beats on sales and EPS. Data center is the profit engine, with around $43 billion from compute and another $8.2 billion from networking, pushing data-center revenue growth close to 65% YoY. Gross margin is around 73.6%, while operating expenses rose about 40% against ~63% revenue growth, so operating leverage is expanding instead of compressing. The balance sheet holds roughly $61 billion in cash and short-term investments, generating around $2.2 billion in interest income over twelve months, which is only about 2% of net income; the earnings story is core operations, not cash yield.

Forward growth and PEG: 24x forward P/E for 50–60% EPS expansion

Street models point to roughly $7.49 diluted EPS in FY 2027, about 60% EPS growth, and revenue climbing toward $317 billion, roughly 49% top-line growth from the current base. On that trajectory, NASDAQ:NVDA trades near 24x 12-month forward earnings and around 19x on a 24-month view, while growing several times faster than the index. The implied forward PEG ratio sits in the 0.7–1.0 zone versus a sector median closer to 1.7, which means investors are not paying bubble-style premiums for the growth they are getting. Compared to staples like Costco and Walmart at roughly 38–39x earnings with much lower growth, the current multiple on NASDAQ:NVDA is aggressive in headlines but conservative against the numbers.

AI infrastructure flywheel: Blackwell, Rubin and long-context inference

The structural driver is the shift from one-off model training to continuous, long-context inference. Nvidia’s three scaling levers – pre-training, post-training and inference – all demand more compute as models get larger and interaction becomes the main workload. The Blackwell GB200 architecture offers about a 15x jump in inference throughput per GPU versus the H-series and around 10x better performance per watt, giving hyperscalers the economics to monetize massive AI CapEx. Management has about $0.5 trillion of visibility tied to Blackwell and Rubin deployments through the end of 2026, roughly 5x the lifetime revenue of Hopper. AI factories in the 500MW–1GW range require $50–60 billion each in system spend, and NASDAQ:NVDA is capturing a rising share of that bill. Over the last decade, Nvidia’s co-designed stack has delivered roughly 1,000,000x effective performance gains versus the ~100x step suggested by classic Moore’s Law, which explains why the revenue curve is so steep.

Software, CUDA ecosystem and Slurm: the lock-in that competitors lack

Labeling NASDAQ:NVDA as just a chip vendor understates the moat. The CUDA platform and its optimized libraries are now the default environment for training and deploying large-scale AI, and once an organization commits tooling and code to CUDA, switching carries real engineering and opportunity cost. On top of that, Nvidia is pushing its own models, such as the Nemotron 3 series and domain-specific architectures like Alpamayo-R1, into the ecosystem to increase stickiness. The acquisition of SchedMD, the company behind the Slurm workload manager used across many HPC and AI clusters, deepens Nvidia’s role in how workloads are scheduled and managed on advanced hardware while keeping the software open-source. A growing R&D footprint, including a large new AI research campus in Israel with potential headcount above 10,000, reinforces the strategy of owning the full accelerated-compute stack.

Gaming and other segments: multi-billion upside that the market barely prices

While investor focus is on AI infrastructure, the gaming franchise remains a meaningful and underpriced growth driver. Recent quarters showed gaming revenue near $4.3 billion, up about 30% year-on-year, inside a PC gaming market estimated around $62 billion in 2024 and projected to hit roughly $130 billion by 2030, a ~13.5% CAGR. High-end GPUs are central to e-sports, creator workflows and VR/AR, and they also form the consumer side of AI adoption with features like ray tracing, DLSS and local inference. Automotive, robotics and industrial digital twins scale off the same IP, adding further optionality. Relative to the weight investors assign to data centers, this multi-billion growth line and its extensions are not properly reflected in the valuation of NASDAQ:NVDA.

Macro and concentration: AI giant at 36% Mag7 weight but still supported by flows

Macro bears highlight that the “Magnificent 7” now represent about 36% of S&P 500 market cap, with NASDAQ:NVDA the largest single constituent of both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. That concentration is historically uncomfortable, but it also means that every passive dollar into U.S. equity indices increases mechanical demand for NASDAQ:NVDA. The usual comparison with Cisco during the dot-com peak ignores the huge difference in earnings power; Cisco traded near 100x forward earnings at the height of the bubble, while NVDA trades at a fraction of that multiple with much higher margin and growth metrics. AI-linked valuations can still compress if sentiment turns or if AI returns disappoint, but the core numbers today are much stronger than the late-1990s analogs that critics like to cite.

China risk, regulation, customers and power as the real bear case

The serious downside scenario is geopolitical and infrastructural. After the H-series export restrictions, the risk is that a regime like the GAIN AI Act effectively blocks the most advanced Blackwell and Rubin chips from China for extended periods, forcing write-downs and shifting long-term demand to domestic Chinese suppliers. Internal modeling suggests China-related disruption could erase 15–25% of revenue potential by 2027 if not offset elsewhere. Customer concentration is another hard risk: about 61% of revenue comes from just four hyperscale clients, so any major pivot toward in-house accelerators, even gradually, would hit volume and pricing power. Power constraints are a third structural risk; with AI campuses at 1GW scale, grid delays can force order deferrals and build inventory – which already stands near $19.8 billion, up about 32% year-on-year. Policy risk is layered on top, with proposals like a 25% fee on certain high-end exports directly targeting margins, and open-source AI plus more efficient small models raising the chance that some workloads move to cheaper, “good enough” compute instead of Nvidia’s top tier.

Technical picture: consolidation above $180 with $278–$340 as realistic next band

From a market-structure angle NASDAQ:NVDA is digesting a massive multi-year run. The stock sits near $187 after a drawdown of roughly 14% from recent highs, trading above key support around $154. Weekly oscillators show the stochastic indicator washed out near the mid-teens and RSI holding around 50, which is a classic setup for another leg higher if price can clear resistance. The tactical pivot sits around $190.7, with the first major resistance band near $199.5; a clean breakout there opens the way toward the $278.9 region, and the main projected 2026 target sits around $340.7, implying roughly 50–90% upside from the $180–190 range. On the downside, the $140.7–$164.3 zone is where long-term bulls would rationally accumulate if macro or AI-sentiment shocks drive a deeper correction.

Insider flows and profile: important to monitor, not what drives the tape

Given a market cap over $4.5 trillion, insider transactions are a sentiment gauge more than a decisive force. Executives with concentrated wealth will routinely sell into strength without changing the long-term thesis, and isolated sales do not invalidate the fundamental story. What matters is whether selling accelerates sharply at the same time as growth or margins start to slip. For tracking patterns in grants, sales and ownership structure on NASDAQ:NVDA, you can monitor the detailed feed here: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/NVDA/stock_profile/insider_transactions and the broader stock profile here: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/NVDA/stock_profile

Final stance on NASDAQ:NVDA – high-volatility compounder, still a clear Buy at $187

At around $187 with a $4.5T+ valuation, NASDAQ:NVDA is not “cheap” in isolation but is still mis-priced relative to its own fundamentals and to other mega caps. You have revenue and EPS growing in the 40–60% band, gross margins near 74%, EBITDA margins around 60%, ROE above 100%, a multi-hundred-billion Blackwell / Rubin pipeline, and an ecosystem moat that competitors have not broken, all at a forward P/E roughly in line with or only modestly above broader market averages. Against that, you face real geopolitical, customer and infrastructure risk and the possibility of sentiment-driven multiple compression. On balance, the numbers you have support a straightforward conclusion: NASDAQ:NVDA is a long-term Buy at current levels, with the explicit understanding that drawdowns of 30–40% are part of the path and position sizing must assume that volatility while targeting multi-year compounding as AI infrastructure spending scales.

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