Oil Prices Steady: Brent at $65.73, WTI at $62.81 Amid Market Caution

WTI Trades Near $62.81 as Weak Demand and Inventory Builds Weigh on Sentiment

WTI crude (CL=F) is hovering at $62.81, down 0.57% on the day, after slipping from an intraday high of $63.34. The weakness reflects persistent demand concerns, with U.S. industrial activity indicators pointing to softer fuel consumption. EIA data showed a 4.3 million barrel crude build last week, while Cushing stocks rose again, signaling comfortable domestic supply despite prior forecasts for drawdowns. The downside bias is reinforced by macro headwinds, including slower manufacturing growth in Europe and China, which is keeping buyers cautious at these price levels.

Brent Holds Above $65 but Faces Resistance at $66

Brent futures (BZ=F) last traded at $65.73, up 0.15% from the prior settlement of $65.63. Prices are consolidating inside a narrow range as traders weigh the balance between geopolitical risks and tangible supply tightness. While tanker-tracking data shows Russian crude shipments edging higher in August, Saudi Arabia has maintained its voluntary output cut, helping Brent avoid breaking below $65 support. Still, without a fresh catalyst from OPEC+ or a clear pickup in Asian refining demand, upside momentum remains capped near $66.

Russian Export Dynamics Shift After Refinery Disruptions

Recent drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries have knocked out 325,000 bpd of domestic processing capacity, prompting Moscow to divert more crude to export channels. This has increased flows to Asia, particularly India, at discounted rates. However, the EU’s ban on Russian refined products and ongoing G7 price cap enforcement are complicating longer-term trade routes. If domestic storage constraints intensify, Russia may be forced to moderate exports, which could firm Brent prices later in Q3.

Indian Refiners Navigate Margin Pressure

India’s ONGC, BPCL, and IOC have reported mixed results, with BPCL’s net profit down 18% y/y due to narrower refining margins, while ONGC’s upstream segment benefited from stable crude production. The rupee’s depreciation against the dollar has added import cost pressure, though robust domestic consumption — up 5.2% y/y — continues to support refinery throughput. Given India’s rising share of Russian crude imports, shifts in Moscow’s export policy could directly impact its refining economics.

OPEC+ Faces Difficult Balancing Act

The upcoming OPEC+ meeting will determine whether voluntary cuts are extended into year-end. While Gulf producers have signaled commitment to price stability, the latest IEA forecast trimmed 2025 oil demand growth by 200,000 bpd, citing slower industrial activity. If deeper cuts are introduced, Brent could challenge $67–$68 resistance, but without them, the market risks slipping back toward the low-$60s in tandem with WTI.

Technical Picture Reflects Lower Price Environment

WTI’s 100-day moving average has now drifted to $63.10, making it an immediate ceiling for any recovery attempt. A sustained move above $63.34 could target $64.80, but failure risks a retest of the $61.97 intraday low. Brent remains range-bound between $65.00 and $66.20, with a break above the upper boundary needed to signal fresh bullish momentum. RSI levels in the low-50s suggest neutral positioning, leaving scope for movement in either direction.

Final Market Call: Hold on WTI, Cautious Buy on Brent

Given the subdued demand backdrop and ample U.S. inventories, WTI remains a Hold, with traders better served waiting for confirmation of stronger macro demand before adding long exposure. Brent warrants a cautious Buy if it can sustain above $65.50 and break $66.20, with the potential for a push toward $67–$68 on supportive OPEC+ policy or renewed geopolitical tension.

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