Ripple XRP Price Forecast: Buyer Exhaustion at $3.00 Support Amid $41.4M Liquidations

Insights into the $3.00 Support Zone for XRP-USD

XRP-USD briefly slipped to an intraday low of $2.89 before buyers re-entered, lifting prices back above the critical $3.00 threshold. This level has historically acted as a psychological and technical pivot—holding firm on four prior touches of the descending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. The 200-period EMA also converges here at $2.97, reinforcing demand. A sustained close above $3.00 would validate this base and set the stage for a retest of $3.32 (the triangle’s upper trendline) and potentially $3.65, the mid-July swing high.

Derivatives Liquidations and Futures Open Interest Dynamics

Over the past 24 hours, XRP saw $41.4 million in total liquidations, with $39 million wiped from long positions—a clear sign of forced exits. Futures open interest has tumbled 26% from its July peak of $10.94 billion to $8.13 billion, indicating traders are taking profits and stepping aside. Similarly, CME Group’s XRP futures volumes plunged from 4,765 contracts on July 23 to just 535 contracts as August began. These declines in open interest and volume underscore an exhaustion of bullish leverage, which often precedes short squeezes when catalysts re-ignite buying.

Technical Indicators and Chart Pattern Analysis

XRP’s daily RSI has fallen from overbought 88 toward a neutral-bearish 45, signaling waning upward momentum. The MACD on the daily chart has generated a bearish crossover, with the blue line crossing below the red signal line, suggesting further downside pressure toward the 50-day EMA at $2.77. On the 4-hour timeframe, the descending triangle pattern—with its four touches of both the flat $3.00 support and the sloping resistance—remains intact. A breakout above $3.20 would invalidate the bearish formation and likely trigger a rally toward $3.50, while a drop below $2.77 would open the door to $2.50 and the longer-term floor at $1.88.

On-Chain Activity and Spot Volume Signals

Spot trading volume for XRP is holding at a subdued $168 million—neutral relative to its pre-pullback levels—indicating neither aggressive selling nor fresh accumulation. CryptoQuant’s spot bubble map confirms muted liquidity, suggesting both buyers and sellers have stepped back. Historically, such low volume near a key support zone often precedes a volatility expansion: either fresh bids absorb remaining offers, sparking a bounce, or renewed sell-side pressure breaks the floor. Given the derivative shake-out, the balance now slightly favors a relief rally as exhausted longs look to re-enter.

Analyst Forecasts and Fractal Pattern Projections

Zack Rector’s projection for a surge to $5 imminently and $15 by September—a 360% advance from $3—relies on the rapid parabolic moves XRP has shown in past cycles. James Crypto Space aligns with this optimism, mapping the 2017 fractal onto today’s range and forecasting a $9 peak by early September, assuming the market compresses timeframes proportionally. Both scenarios demand a decisive break above $3.20–$3.30 and sustained momentum into late August. Failure to clear these hurdles would cast doubt on the fractal thesis and favor extended consolidation.

AI-Driven Forecasts and Legal Resolution Catalysts

DeepSeek AI’s model, assigning a 70% probability to a favorable SEC settlement, anticipates XRP trading between $3.50 and $5.00 by year-end. That analysis factors in increasing institutional adoption of Ripple’s ODL platform and broader risk sentiment tied to Bitcoin’s performance. A positive legal outcome—widely expected by September—could materially reduce regulatory overhang and unlock new institutional flows, making the $3.50–$5.00 band the initial target zone post-ruling.

Whale Movements and Insider Selling Influence

Recent on-chain data revealed a $175 million distribution by Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, of which $140 million landed on centralized exchanges. Combined with other large-scale whale transfers, this created heightened sell-side pressure at the $3.05 resistance, reinforcing the $3.00–$3.05 supply zone. While such insider liquidations can undermine price in the short term, they also clear the path for subsequent demand from value-seeking institutions once the legal environment brightens.

Key Risk Factors and Next Price Triggers

The primary downside risks include a continued decline in macro risk appetite—driven by U.S. trade tensions or hawkish Fed policy—that drags XRP below $2.77. On the other hand, an ETF approval catalyst or a meaningful legal settlement announcement could launch a short squeeze, driving XRP through $3.32 and toward $3.65 resistance. Traders should watch for a high-volume break and close above $3.20 as confirmation of bullish conviction, while a drop and hold below $2.77 would argue for further de-risking toward $2.50.

Recommendation
Hold – Monitor for volume-backed breakouts above $3.20 to consider adding; maintain stops below $2.77 to guard against deeper corrections.

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