Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD at $210 Balances Institutional Momentum With Weak On-Chain Signals

Solana Price Analysis – SOL-USD Tests $210 as Institutions Fuel Momentum but Technical Risks Persist

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading around $210 after rebounding from August’s $155 low, marking a 36% recovery in just four weeks. The rally has been underpinned by aggressive institutional inflows, with Pantera Capital unveiling a $1.25 billion Solana-focused fund. This comes as open interest in Solana futures hit a record $13.68 billion, showing speculative demand is peaking. The coin’s current market cap sits above $92 billion, making it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, but the underlying signals suggest a market caught between bullish momentum and weakening on-chain activity.

Institutional Demand Anchors Solana Above $200

Pantera’s move to rebrand a Nasdaq-listed entity into “Solana Co.” signals that the asset has crossed a threshold where traditional finance is now embedding exposure directly. More than $820 million in SOL is already held in corporate treasuries, similar to Ethereum’s trajectory before its treasury footprint expanded to $20 billion. This institutional footprint explains why every dip toward $193.92 support is met with accumulation. Inflows have also mirrored ETF-style speculation, with Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade — approved with 98% validator support — slashing finality times from 12.8 seconds to just 150 milliseconds and throughput surpassing 100,000 TPS. These fundamentals are why institutional buyers are locking in exposure despite regulatory uncertainty.

Technical Setup Targets $260 in Near-Term, $1,000 on Multi-Month Breakout

The reclaim of $197 as high-time-frame support created a bullish structure defined by higher highs and higher lows. Analysts point to $227 as the next resistance, with a breakout on volume opening the path toward $260. The weekly chart shows a broadening megaphone pattern, which if confirmed above $330, could trigger a parabolic move toward $1,057. RSI has climbed from 49 to 61 since early August, confirming building momentum. MACD expansion also indicates buyers are firmly in control for now. However, the critical $215–$227 range is decisive — failure here risks a drop back to $180 and even $165.

On-Chain Activity Shows Divergence From Price Rally

Despite prices gaining 17% in a week, Solana’s on-chain data shows a troubling slowdown. Total value locked (TVL) is steady at $12 billion, but transaction count has dropped 99% over the past month. Active addresses fell 22%, while weekly DEX volumes slid 65% to $10.67 billion. By contrast, Ethereum posted a 39% increase in transactions. This divergence suggests the rally is being fueled more by derivatives and speculative flows than organic network activity. Without a recovery in user engagement, the sustainability of a move to $260 and beyond could be challenged.

Long-Term Forecasts: $224 in 2025, $284 in 2026, and $400 by 2030

Historical patterns remain instructive. SOL’s first bull cycle took it from $26.89 in July 2021 to $249.06 by November of that year. After the FTX collapse cratered sentiment, Solana staged a comeback, hitting $185 in April 2024 before volatility returned. In January 2025, SOL printed an all-time high of $262.56 before crashing more than 50% in February as volumes collapsed from $25.5 billion to $3 billion. Forecasts project a recovery to $224 by November 2025, $284 in 2026 with ETF inflows, and a sideways grind to $400 by 2030. Traders are watching whether ETF approvals sustain demand long enough to offset cyclical dips.

Competition From New Projects Like Remittix Is Emerging

While Solana is consolidating above $200, some traders are pivoting to early-stage tokens like Remittix (RTX). Its presale has raised over $23 million, with BitMart listing confirmed and adoption driven by real-world payment solutions. Analysts call it a “catch-up trade” with ROI projections of 4,000%. This shift underscores how Solana, as a large-cap with a $92B valuation, offers more moderate upside, while newer tokens attract speculative capital promising exponential growth.

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