XRP ETF: XRPI at $10.70 and XRPR at $15.19 Ride $1.13B Inflows as XRP-USD Holds $1.85

XRP-USD, XRPI, XRPR: Price Snapshot And ETF Disconnect

XRP-USD is trading around $1.85–$1.90 on Dec 24, with a key print at about $1.8638 and an intraday band clustered in the $1.84–$1.89 zone. The spot market is red on the year, roughly –7% for 2025 after gains of 81% in 2023 and 238% in 2024, so you are looking at a late-cycle drawdown, not an early bull leg. At the same time the U.S. spot XRP ETFs tracking XRP-USD – led by products like XRPI and XRPR – are holding up around the lower end of their own post-launch range: XRPI at $10.70 (–1.74% today, after-hours $10.71, day range $10.69–$10.83, 52-week range $10.44–$23.53, volume ~546.9K) and XRPR at $15.19 (–1.68% today, day range $15.19–$15.37, 52-week range $14.79–$25.99, volume ~36.2K). The message is simple: the listed wrappers are already trading like a depressed, range-bound proxy on XRP-USD, not a momentum instrument. Price has repriced lower, but it has not collapsed, even while on-chain and sentiment data are ugly.

Six-Month Downtrend, Year-To-Date Damage And The ETF Paradox

The structural context around XRP-USD is a six-month downtrend driven by whales and long-term holders exiting into strength. From the beginning of 2025, XRP-USD is roughly 7% lower, threatening to break a two-year streak of positive annual closes after +81% in 2023 and +238% in 2024. Realized profit/loss metrics show aggressive Q4 selling at a loss – large holders chose to lock in red rather than ride volatility – which is a notable shift from the classic “HODL through drawdowns” behavior you expect in a large-cap token. At the same time, spot XRP ETFs are doing the opposite: no outflows since launch in mid-November, $1.13B in cumulative net inflows, and about $1.25B in combined AUM across all U.S. spot products. ETF flows are unambiguously positive while XRP-USD is negative year-to-date. That is the central paradox you need to understand: real money is entering XRPI, XRPR and peers every session, but secondary spot flows and whale behavior are still acting as a brake on price.

ETF Flows: $1.13B Net, $1.25B AUM And Rotation From BTC/ETH

Institutional positioning around XRP-USD is now defined by ETF flows. Since November 13, spot XRP ETFs from Canary, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton have built a combined asset base of roughly $1.12–$1.25B, fuelled by $1.13B of net inflows and a 33-day streak of uninterrupted positive flow. Products like Canary’s XRPC have pulled in about $384M by themselves, and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ now holds ~101.55M XRP (~$192.7M). Recent daily flow numbers matter: on Dec 23, XRP ETFs still captured about $8.19M in net inflows in a thin holiday tape while many Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows. CoinShares flow data shows explicit rotation from BTC and ETH products into XRP-USD exposure through the ETF channel. For XRPI at $10.70 and XRPR at $15.19, that means large institutions are adding units on weakness rather than selling into the six-month downtrend, and the ETF layer is quietly absorbing supply that would otherwise sit on exchanges.

Whales, Binance Reserves And How Supply Is Being Reshuffled

The main reason XRP-USD is not trading higher despite XRPI/XRPR buying is whale distribution. On-chain data shows that the largest volumes hitting Binance are coming from the 100K–1M and 1M+ XRP bands, meaning big holders have been feeding supply into the market instead of absorbing it. Each spike in whale deposits has coincided with a lower high and then a lower low in XRP-USD, a textbook sign that rallies are being sold. That is why every approach toward $1.95 has been rejected: whales are using that area to offload inventory built up into the ETF narrative. At the same time, CryptoQuant’s exchange reserve series for XRP-USD on Binance has dropped to roughly 2.6B XRP, the lowest since July 2024. A falling exchange reserve plus elevated past inflows tells you that the most intense phase of dumping is likely behind you: whales have already moved a chunk of their coins onto the exchange and then out again, and new net supply available for market sale is shrinking. The Whale Flows 30-day moving average is still negative – so selling hasn’t fully disappeared – but it is easing, which is exactly the setup where ETF demand can gradually overpower residual distribution.

Network Activity, Active Addresses And Sentiment/FUD Extremes

Fundamentals on the ledger itself reflect the same stress. Active transacting addresses on the XRP Ledger have fallen to roughly 34,005, a monthly low that signals weaker participation from both retail and institutions at the protocol level. That drop in on-chain activity is consistent with realized loss selling and risk aversion. At the same time, sentiment data shows unusually high levels of negative social chatter around XRP-USD. Santiment points out that XRP is seeing “far more negative social media commentary than average,” a pattern which, historically, has often preceded sharp upside breaks once positioning is stretched and the narrative is exhausted. Retail is loudly skeptical while XRP-USD holds key support; ETFs are still seeing $8M+ inflow days; large whales have already executed heavy selling. That combination – depressed activity, high FUD, but no structural collapse in price – is characteristic of late-stage downside phases, not early-stage bear markets.

Key Technical Levels For XRP-USD: $1.85, $1.80, $1.75–$1.78, $1.61 And $1.00

Price structure around XRP-USD is extremely clean right now. The immediate line in the sand is $1.85: that level has been repeatedly flagged as the short-term “must-hold” zone after earlier support in the high $1.86–$1.87 region gave way. Beneath $1.85, the next high-importance shelf is $1.80, with several analyses treating it as the main pivot between a corrective phase and a deeper trend break. If $1.80 goes on convincing volume, the next zone is $1.75–$1.78, which aligns with earlier consolidation and downside extensions mentioned by multiple desks. Below that, the structure becomes more fragile: some work highlights $1.61 as a deeper support aligned with weekly structure, while more aggressive bear scenarios project moves toward $1.50–$1.66 and, if that fails, even $1.25 or $1.00. ZyCrypto explicitly points to $1.77 as a trigger that could open the door to ~$0.79 if selling accelerates. Peter Brandt’s double-top view frames the weekly chart as vulnerable unless oversold RSI bounces materialize from zones near current prices. Your risk ladder is therefore clear: defend $1.85 first, $1.80 second, and treat any sustained break of $1.75 followed by a weekly close below the low-$1.60s as invalidation of the medium-term bullish structure.

Upside Map: $1.92–$2.00, $2.10–$2.50, $2.30, $2.70 And Beyond

On the upside, XRP-USD has equally well-defined checkpoints. The first serious improvement comes only when price reclaims $1.92–$2.00 and turns that band into support; multiple technical write-ups describe that cluster as the first real “bounce trigger” after the current compression. Above $2.00, the zone between roughly $2.10 and $2.50 is where earlier selling waves originated, and where higher-time-frame moving averages and downtrend lines converge. Some weekly analyses explicitly highlight $2.30 and then $2.70 as targets if XRP-USD can close back above key supports and flush out late shorts. Combine that with Binance user consensus inputs pointing to an average XRP-USD expectation of about $1.96 in 2026 and $2.38 by 2030, and you get a market that structurally still prices moderate upside over a multi-year horizon even after a brutal six-month downtrend. For XRPI at $10.70 and XRPR at $15.19, that upside map translates into ETF price paths that can easily accommodate 30–50% appreciation if spot XRP-USD retests and breaks $2.30–$2.70 with ETF AUM still expanding.

Whale Supply, Support Zones And The Competing Bear Scenarios

The bear case hinges on two things: whales continuing to use ETFs and spot rallies as liquidity exits, and key supports failing in sequence. CryptoQuant and other on-chain desks show that repeated whale inflow spikes to Binance have generated lower highs, most notably around $1.95, where supply repeatedly overwhelmed demand. ZyCrypto’s downside roadmap calls for a retreat toward $1.50–$1.66 if current inflow patterns persist, and flags a breach below $1.77 as a trigger for a potential spike down toward ~$0.79. CoinGape’s scenario is more binary: hold $1.80–$1.90 to preserve the broader bullish structure; fail there and the “crash to $1” thesis becomes realistic. Those are not abstract numbers; they are the concrete zones where risk-off rotation, U.S. regulatory headlines or renewed ETF fatigue could compress XRP-USD further despite the current inflow streak.

Why ETF Strength Hasn’t Ignited XRP-USD Yet – And What Changes That

The core question is why $1.13B of ETF inflows and a 33-day positive streak have not forced XRP-USD back above $2.00. The answer is flow timing and distribution. Whales accumulated into the ETF approval narrative, then used the post-launch optimism and new demand from XRPI, XRPR and peers as exit liquidity, steadily feeding coins into both the ETF creation mechanism and spot exchanges. This capped every rally near $1.95–$2.00 and absorbed ETF demand. Now, however, key indicators are shifting: Binance’s XRP-USD reserves have dropped to 2.6B (multi-month lows), Whale Flows are easing though still negative, ETF AUM keeps climbing toward $1.25B, and retail sentiment is extremely bearish while price is flatlining just above $1.80–$1.85 instead of breaking down. The trigger that flips the narrative is not another headline; it is a regime change in net supply. If reserves continue to fall, whale sending to exchanges keeps decelerating, and ETFs maintain even modest daily inflows, the marginal buyer will finally outnumber the marginal seller, and the $1.92–$2.00 band will get taken out on a volume expansion move.

Regulation, Utility And Why Institutions Are Rotating Into XRP Exposure

On the structural side, the legal and regulatory environment is another reason XRP-USD has not been abandoned despite the negative YTD print. U.S. lawmakers are advancing market structure bills that explicitly lean on XRP’s clarified status, while Ripple’s enterprise traction on the XRP Ledger – payments, tokenized assets, liquidity products – continues to grow. That narrative is critical for ETF buyers: they are not playing a meme coin; they are buying a regulated, large-cap asset with a functional settlement network and a post-litigation framework. Flows data shows institutions trimming BTC and ETH risk while adding to XRP-USD exposure through the ETF wrapper; Franklin Templeton crossing 100M XRP holdings and Canary’s XRPC pulling in $384M are not retail events. The underlying idea is straightforward: if XRP-USD can hold the $1.80 area while regulators move toward clarity and ETF AUM scales from $1.25B to, say, $3–$5B, the medium-term risk/reward favors accumulation at current levels over exit.

Investment Stance On XRP-USD, XRPI And XRPR: High-Risk Buy With Clear Invalidation

Taking all the numbers together – XRP-USD around $1.86, XRPI at $10.70, XRPR at $15.19, –7% YTD performance, 6 months of downtrend, $1.13B of net ETF inflows, $1.25B in AUM, Binance reserves down to 2.6B XRP, 33 straight ETF inflow days, support stacked at $1.85, $1.80 and $1.75–$1.78, downside risk toward $1.00–$0.79, upside bands at $1.92–$2.00, $2.30 and $2.70 – the conclusion is direct. XRP-USD is a high-volatility, event-driven asset trading near the bottom of its current structural range while institutional demand is building through ETFs and whale selling pressure is starting to exhaust. That is not a setup for a neutral stance. Based strictly on the data you have, XRP-USD is a speculative Buy, with invalidation on a clean weekly break below roughly $1.60 and full capitulation if price flushes through $1.50–$1.66 and fails to reclaim $1.75. XRPI and XRPR are also Buys for investors who can tolerate 40–50% drawdown risk, using the same spot levels as reference and accepting that NAV will track any move toward $1.00 as brutally as it will track any breakout above $2.30–$2.70. The positioning is simple: you are being paid with ETF inflows, structural rotation and exhausted on-chain selling to take the other side of late-stage fear while the market debates whether XRP-USD ends 2025 slightly negative or flips back to positive.