XRP (XRP-USD) Rallies to $3.23 But Momentum Faces Critical Barrier Near $3.30
XRP (XRP-USD) surged to $3.23, posting a 1.64% gain on the session and extending a recovery from sub-$3.00 lows seen earlier in the day. The intraday bounce came despite a wave of bearish sentiment across the broader crypto market, with Bitcoin stalling and Ethereum under pressure. XRP's resilience appears driven by fresh speculative flows and renewed optimism around Ripple's cross-border payment expansion in Latin America and Southeast Asia.
Still, XRP remains trapped beneath the key $3.30 resistance, which capped bullish momentum twice in July. This level now serves as a psychological barrier and neckline of a potential double-top structure. If buyers fail to reclaim that zone with high conviction, the risk of downside acceleration back toward $3.00 remains elevated.
Whale Movements and Volume Trends Reflect Guarded Optimism
On-chain analysis shows mixed signals. While large holders have refrained from aggressive dumping — unlike during the June 30 pullback — they’ve also slowed their accumulation. Wallets holding over 10 million XRP have been net neutral over the past 72 hours. That suggests institutions are cautiously waiting for confirmation of a breakout above the $3.30 ceiling before deploying more capital.
Spot trading volume climbed nearly 18% versus the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap data, suggesting increased activity from retail and momentum traders. However, funding rates on major derivatives platforms remain flat, implying leverage remains under control and that this rally may lack the firepower seen during the explosive April surge toward $3.70.
Technical Landscape: $3.30 Resistance, $3.00 Key Floor
Technically, XRP continues to form higher intraday lows, reinforcing the bullish trend structure that began after the July 15 reversal from $2.91. The RSI sits at 61, signaling mild overbought conditions but not yet at exhaustion levels. The MACD histogram remains positive, but momentum is flattening as price nears resistance.
The $3.30 zone remains the key test. A confirmed breakout would expose $3.42, followed by the multi-month high at $3.70. On the downside, a failure to hold $3.15–$3.10 could trigger a retest of $3.00, where bulls are expected to defend aggressively. If broken, that opens the door to $2.89, a major swing support from mid-June.
Macro and Regulatory Inputs: No New SEC Threats, Ripple Adoption Expands
Ripple Labs has seen no new negative developments from the SEC post-settlement, which continues to provide legal clarity for XRP’s status in the U.S. Meanwhile, the company announced new corridors for cross-border remittance between Brazil and the UAE, strengthening XRP’s real-world use case. However, these long-term wins are battling against short-term market structure headwinds and dollar liquidity shifts.
Crypto flows in July have favored large caps, but altcoin sentiment is uneven. With no ETF catalysts for XRP and most institutional demand already positioned, any breakout above $3.30 must be driven by fresh narratives or broader crypto market tailwinds.
VERDICT: HOLD – XRP Faces $3.30 Test, Needs Volume to Sustain Rally
At $3.23, XRP (XRP-USD) is in a delicate position. Momentum is positive but increasingly constrained by overhead supply near $3.30. The lack of aggressive whale participation and a flattening MACD suggest caution. Traders should watch for either a breakout with surge in volume, or a stall that could send price back to $3.00. Until $3.30 is cleanly broken or $3.00 fails, XRP remains a Hold — with both scenarios tightly coiled.
