ASML Stock Price Forecast - ASML at $1,066: EUV Leader Faces China Hit but 2026 AI Capex Fuels Upside

NASDAQ:ASML – EUV Monopoly Priced at $1,066 but Still Not Fully Valued

NASDAQ:ASML price snapshot – $1,066.68 today, near the top of a massive multi-year rerating

NASDAQ:ASML is trading around $1,066.68, down $6.07 (-0.57%) on the day, with an intraday range of $1,061.07–$1,073.65 and a 52-week range of $578.51–$1,141.61. Market cap stands at roughly $409 billion, putting ASML in true global mega-cap territory. The stock has essentially doubled from the bottom of the current 1-year range while still sitting about 7%–8% below the recent high around $1,141, leaving room for upside without paying the absolute peak price.
The share price implies a TTM P/E of about 37.4x and a forward P/E near 35.8x, with an annual dividend of roughly $7.37 per share for a yield close to 0.7%. This is a classic growth compounder profile: minimal yield, very high reinvestment, and a valuation that only makes sense if earnings and free cash flow keep compounding at double-digit rates over many years.
For live price moves and intraday levels, you’d track NASDAQ:ASML real-time here.

NASDAQ:ASML quality engine – 52% gross margin, 27.7% FCF margin and disciplined EPS growth

Underneath the $1,000+ price tag, NASDAQ:ASML is still running a very clean P&L and cash-flow machine. Latest reported quarter shows:
Revenue growth is modest on the surface – around +0.6% year-on-year in the most recent quarter – but profitability continues to trend in the right direction. EPS came in around $5.48 per share, up roughly 3.8% YoY, helped by rising gross margins and a slightly lower share count. For the full 2025 year, management is guiding ~15% revenue growth with a gross margin around 52%, which is extremely high for heavy industrial equipment.
Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is roughly $8.93 billion, translating into a free-cash-flow-to-revenue margin of about 27.7%. That puts NASDAQ:ASML in a different league from most capital-equipment names, which usually have to fight cyclical swings with far thinner cash margins. At this scale, every 10% revenue increase can realistically add $1.5–$2.0 billion of incremental FCF once capex stabilizes.

NASDAQ:ASML and the 2025–2026 semiconductor capex wave – demand is built into the cycle, not the narrative

The real story behind NASDAQ:ASML at $1,066 is not the last quarter; it is the capex pipeline of the global semiconductor industry over the next 2–3 years.
The world’s chip industry is targeting sales of roughly $772.2 billion in 2025 and around $975.4 billion in 2026, according to recent sector forecasts – that’s around 22.5% growth in 2025 and roughly 25% again into 2026. Those numbers are not marketing slides; they are the base case of the main industry forecasters.
To get there, fabs must commit massive capex: the updated projections show:
Semiconductor capex growth around 16.3% in 2025 and 11.7% in 2026, with the semiconductor equipment market itself expected to grow roughly 16% in 2025 and about 11% in 2026, then hovering near 9% annually into the back half of the decade.
ASML’s revenue historically tracks that capex cycle: when industry capex accelerates (2017, 2021, 2022), ASML’s revenue growth spikes; when fabs pause or digest capacity, ASML also slows. The exception was 2023, when ASML stayed strong because Chinese customers front-loaded tool purchases ahead of export controls. That one-off distortion is now unwinding, but the underlying correlation between fab capex and ASML’s top line remains intact.

NASDAQ:ASML customer concentration – TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron and SK hynix are writing the growth script

The forward growth of NASDAQ:ASML is essentially leveraged to the capital-spending decisions of a handful of giants. Three of them – TSMC, Samsung and Intel – account for 60%–70% of ASML’s revenue, while memory leaders like Micron and SK hynix drive a large chunk of the remaining ~35% of revenue tied to DRAM/NAND equipment.
The capex trajectory of those names into 2025–2026 is unambiguous:
TSMC is projected to raise capex by around 37.5%, ramping advanced nodes for AI accelerators and high-performance logic.
SK hynix and Micron are expected to post some of the strongest capex growth in the group, driven by the need to expand HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) capacity for AI data centers.
Samsung’s capex looks more flat, with HBM investments offset by reductions elsewhere, while Intel is expected to cut capex by nearly 25% as new management trims and delays some large fab projects.
On a combined basis, these five players are tracking +19.6% capex growth in 2025 and about +18.6% in 2026. That is the key: despite Intel’s pullback and some internal mix shifts, the total wallet of ASML’s core customers is still growing at a high-teens rate into 2026.

NASDAQ:ASML regional mix – China is 42% of revenue and now swinging from tailwind to drag

The biggest near-term risk inside NASDAQ:ASML is not demand from TSMC or Micron; it is the regulatory choke on China and the inevitable digestion after an historic buying spree.
Year-to-date Q3 2025, China accounted for roughly 42% of ASML’s total revenue, yet sales to China in that period fell about 23.6% YoY as export controls on advanced DUV and EUV tools bit and as Chinese foundries digested the massive orders they pushed through before the rules tightened.
By contrast, other regions are growing hard:
Taiwan revenue is up around 175% year-on-year.
South Korea revenue is up about 46%.
Japan is up roughly 50%.
The United States is growing around 11%.
Management has already warned that revenue from China is expected to “decline significantly” from the exceptionally strong 2024–2025 levels. Given that China currently sits near one-third to two-fifths of the revenue base depending on the quarter, this is a real headwind for 2026.
However, you have to separate timing risk from structural demand. The Chinese semiconductor equipment market is still projected to grow around 9.8% per year through 2030, supported by heavy domestic policy support, “Big Fund III” capital and import-duty exemptions on tools that cannot be sourced locally. The 2026 picture is a normalisation after front-loading plus regulation, not the collapse of a market.

NASDAQ:ASML export controls – EUV locked out, DUV squeezed, but moat remains intact

Export restrictions now effectively ban shipments of EUV (NXE) systems to China and increasingly constrain the most advanced DUV tools. Since 2019, licenses for EUV exports to Chinese fabs have not been renewed, and more recent rounds of US and Dutch rules have placed stricter thresholds on logic, DRAM and NAND nodes that can be supported with imported lithography equipment.
In 2022–2024, rules expanded to cover:
Logic at 16/14nm and below,
DRAM at 18nm and below,
NAND with 128+ layers,
and specific deep-UV platforms such as the NXT 2000i series and newer.
On top of that, about two dozen categories of tools and software tied to advanced-node and AI/HBM manufacturing have been swept into the restricted basket, with Chinese entities added to export-control lists. Even some metrology and inspection systems are now covered.
For NASDAQ:ASML, that means the China business is running into a ceiling. But the restrictions do not erase the technology lead; they simply redirect ASML’s most profitable platforms toward Taiwan, Korea, the US, Japan, and eventually Europe, where the leading-edge fabs are actually taping out sub-2nm and EUV-heavy nodes.

NASDAQ:ASML EUV monopoly and High-NA – 10–15 years ahead of realistic competition

The single biggest reason NASDAQ:ASML trades at nearly 38x earnings is that there is still no real substitute for its advanced EUV systems.
Competing efforts look like this:
Canon is pushing nanoimprint lithography (NIL) – cheaper in theory, but hampered by defect-density and scalability issues. It may carve out niches but does not threaten EUV as the workhorse of sub-7nm production.
Nikon continues to develop ArF immersion systems for nodes above ~20nm; again, important at legacy and specialty nodes, but not a challenge to EUV at the cutting edge.
China’s SMEE has made progress on DUV platforms and filed patents for EUV light sources, while experimenting with an “alternative EUV” using laser-induced discharge plasma (LDP). There is also a reported prototype EUV light source in Shenzhen with Huawei involvement, targeting potential commercial systems around 2028–2030.
Even if those timelines are aggressive and partially realistic, they do not put anyone ahead of ASML. ASML is already ramping High-NA EUV and laying groundwork for Hyper-NA EUV, while competitors are still struggling to prove a first-generation EUV system suitable for commercial yields. ASML management has publicly stated that Chinese efforts remain 10–15 years behind on the combination of light source, optics and system integration required to print below 10nm economically.
High-NA EUV is not hypothetical. The EXE:5200B has already been delivered to players like SK hynix to underpin next-generation DRAM and HBM, and previous EXE systems are in pilot use at Samsung and Intel for advanced nodes (e.g., Intel’s 14A roadmap). TSMC has not formally committed to High-NA, but its own roadmap implies 1.4nm logic around 2028, which almost certainly requires some form of High-NA deployment.

NASDAQ:ASML 2025–2026 growth profile – 15% now, mid-single digits next year with upside optionality

For 2025, management expects ~15% revenue growth with gross margins around 52%. Given the current price near $1,066, that means the market is valuing ASML at roughly 35–36x forward earnings and around 25–28x forward free cash flow, depending on your exact FCF estimate.
For 2026, one detailed model of ASML’s segments assumes:
Around 30% growth in EUV revenue as High-NA systems ramp and customers push further into sub-2nm work,
Flat DUV revenue in 2026 due to China compression,
A total 2026 revenue growth rate of roughly 5.3%, once the China hit is fully reflected.
That is a base-case, not a ceiling. If Taiwan, Korea, the US and memory fabs accelerate tool orders faster than expected, it is completely plausible for ASML to deliver high single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth in 2026 instead of mid single-digit. The underlying industry capex numbers – 11%+ growth in equipment spending and nearly 19% capex growth for the core customer group – support that view.
The key is that 2026 is a transition year: China normalises, non-China capex fills the gap; EUV and High-NA mix lift margins further; and the free-cash-flow engine keeps running at well above 25% FCF margin even at mid-single-digit top-line growth.

NASDAQ:ASML valuation and implied upside – DCF fair value around $1,234, or ~16–17% above spot

On valuation, one rigorous discounted cash flow framework, using:
A WACC of 8.2%,
Segment-level assumptions including 30% EUV growth in 2025, mid-teens EUV thereafter, flat 2026 DUV,
And a terminal EV/EBITDA multiple around 21.5x, in line with the 5-year average of top equipment peers,
produces a fair-value estimate for NASDAQ:ASML around $1,233.80 per share.
From today’s price near $1,066–$1,070, that corresponds to roughly 16–17% upside on a 12–18 month view, not counting the modest 0.7% dividend yield.
Put differently, the current market is already pricing ASML as a premium compounder, but it is not pricing it like a 60x-earnings mania stock. You are paying a high multiple for a near-monopoly in a chokepoint technology (EUV/High-NA) with:
Gross margins above 50%,
FCF margins close to 28%,
Industry capex growing double-digit,
And realistic revenue growth in the mid-teens for 2025 and mid-single digits with upside in 2026.
In that context, ~37x trailing earnings does not look irrational. It looks like a quality premium.

NASDAQ:ASML technical context – trading below $1,141 high, far above the $578 floor

From a price-structure standpoint, NASDAQ:ASML has already re-rated aggressively but is not stretched to the absolute top of its range.
The 52-week low at $578.51 effectively marked the end of the last digestion phase for semis and the beginning of the AI-driven capex super-cycle. The stock has since rallied more than 80% off that floor.
The 52-week high at $1,141.61 represents the market’s peak enthusiasm on the last leg. At the current $1,066–$1,070 band, the stock trades about 6%–7% below that high, giving some margin for error for new buyers.
Day-to-day volatility between $1,061 and $1,073 today is noise; the more important takeaway is that the market is comfortable holding ASML north of $1,000 despite:
China revenue projected to decline sharply in 2026,
Export controls constraining one of its largest regions,
And headline risk around AI, tariffs and geopolitics.
That tells you institutions see the same thing: a structural asset, not a tactical trade.

NASDAQ:ASML risk matrix – China, regulation, competition and cycle timing

There are real risks at NASDAQ:ASML and they are not cosmetic.
China revenue at ~32%–42% of the mix is a double-edged sword. The 2024–2025 front-loading inflated growth, and the subsequent drawdown will mechanically pull the 2026 growth rate lower. If restrictions tighten further or local substitutes in China ramp faster than expected, the drag could be larger or more prolonged than the current base-case.
Regulation and geopolitics remain a wild card. Additional rounds of US and Dutch export controls, or broader sanctions hitting key customers, could choke incremental demand in specific segments or regions.
Competition is not dead. Canon, Nikon, SMEE and Huawei-linked projects are all pushing their own roadmaps. If any of them manages to commercialise a reliable, cost-effective EUV-class tool by 2028–2030, ASML’s monopoly economics in China could erode. The probability that they materially challenge ASML’s leadership before High-NA and Hyper-NA are mature is low, but it is not zero.
The semiconductor capital cycle can overshoot. Industry forecasts are projecting almost $1 trillion in semiconductor sales by 2026, but if AI capex gets ahead of real end-demand, the sector could face another digestion phase. ASML would then likely print a year or two of low or even negative top-line growth, as it has done in prior cycles, before resuming its trend.
These are not reasons to ignore the stock. They are the price of admission for owning a strategic asset at the center of AI and advanced semiconductors.

NASDAQ:ASML insider and ownership lens – what to watch on TradingNews before sizing a position

For any position in NASDAQ:ASML, monitoring insider behaviour and ownership trends is mandatory. With a nearly $409 billion market cap, insider flows will not move the stock alone, but they can signal management’s confidence in the long-term roadmap or flag phases where insiders are de-risking after large runs.
Before committing serious capital, it is worth reviewing the detailed insider and profile data here:
ASML stock profile and insider transactions
ASML full stock profile overview
The combination of:
Insider behaviour,
Institutional ownership trends,
And valuation relative to that $1,233–$1,250 intrinsic-value band
will give you a cleaner risk-reward picture than price alone.

NASDAQ:ASML verdict – high-quality Buy with mid-teens upside and structural AI leverage

Putting all of the data together – current price around $1,066–$1,070, 37.4x P/E, 52% gross margins, 27.7% FCF margins, 15% guided revenue growth in 2025, 5%+ base-case growth in 2026 with upside, a near-monopoly in EUV and High-NA, and a DCF fair value around $1,234 – NASDAQ:ASML deserves a clear Buy rating on a 12–24 month horizon.
The stock is not cheap in absolute terms, but the premium is justified by:
Its unique strategic position in the semiconductor stack,
The capex trajectories of TSMC, Samsung, Micron and SK hynix,
The durability of its EUV moat versus Canon, Nikon and Chinese challengers,
And the fact that even with China normalising, the rest of the world is accelerating.
At current levels, the risk-reward for NASDAQ:ASML looks skewed toward further gains, with a realistic mid-teens upside to fair value and long-term optionality if AI infrastructure spending overshoots the already aggressive 2025–2026 forecasts. For investors who can tolerate volatility and regulatory noise, ASML at ~$1,066 is a high-quality Buy, not a hold or a fade.

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