Gold Price Blasts Through $4,500: Can XAU/USD Stretch to the $5,050 Target?

Gold (XAU/USD) 2026 Outlook – Parabolic Run, Violent Range

Gold (XAU/USD) enters 2026 trading above $4,500/oz, less than $50 below its record around $4,549, after delivering roughly a 65% annual gain in 2025. That is the strongest performance since the late 1970s and it resets the reference range for this cycle: we are no longer discussing $2,000–$2,500, but a band that already sits in the mid-$4,000s and points toward a potential test of $5,000+.

A major global bank’s metals desk now projects a 2026 trading corridor between about $3,950 and $5,050/oz, with an end-2026 target near $4,450 and an average forecast of $4,587 for the year. That same desk lifts the structural averages further out: about $4,625 in 2027, $4,700 in 2028, and $4,775 in 2029, signalling that this is not viewed as a blow-off spike but as a re-rated floor for XAU/USD.

Why One Desk Now Sees $5,050 Highs and $3,950 Lows for XAU/USD

The revised call for a $5,050/oz peak in the first half of 2026 – up from an earlier $5,000 – sits on three pillars: geopolitics, policy, and structural demand.

First, geopolitical risk is explicitly embedded in the upside scenario. The bank expects that if current flashpoints stay active or escalate, safe-haven flows can easily push gold (XAU/USD) through the prior $4,549 high and into the $5,000–$5,050 zone. Second, the base case still assumes ongoing US Federal Reserve rate cuts, which depress the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and keep real yields contained. Third, central banks remain in accumulation mode, providing a consistent bid under the market.

The same forecast is clear that the second half of 2026 can look very different. If geopolitical tensions ease or if the Fed slows or pauses its cutting path, that desk expects a corrective leg that can drag XAU/USD down toward $3,950. This is the logic behind the wide range and the slightly reduced 2026 average from $4,600 to $4,587: upside blow-off is possible, but so is a deep mean-reversion once the panic bid fades.

Macro Engine: Fed Cuts, Jobs Data and the Dollar at 99.16

The immediate catalyst for the recent surge above $4,500/oz was the December US labor report and the way rates traders priced it.

Nonfarm payrolls printed around 50,000 jobs vs. 60,000 expected, signalling a softer labor market, while the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.4%. That mix – weaker hiring but lower jobless rate – keeps recession risk alive without giving the Fed a clean excuse to sound hawkish again. Against that backdrop, the market has now priced roughly 56 basis points of Fed cuts into 2026, and many desks still discuss the possibility of around 50 bps of easing over the coming year.

At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 99.16, up about 0.33% on the day referenced, but still materially softer than during the 2022–2023 hiking peak. A weaker or range-bound dollar mechanically supports XAU/USD, because international buyers see lower local-currency costs and because gold competes more effectively against dollar cash.

The combination is textbook bullish for bullion: slower growth signals, expectations of lower policy rates, and a dollar that is no longer punishing non-USD assets.

Central Banks, “Insider” Flows and Derivatives Positioning in Gold (XAU/USD)

There is no insider transaction tape for gold (XAU/USD) the way there is for equities, but official-sector and ETF flows are the closest analogue.

World Gold Council data for Q4 2025 shows central banks adding about 290 tonnes to their reserves, continuing the aggressive purchasing trend that has been running since at least 2022. On top of that, one Indian-focused analysis notes that countries such as China are stockpiling more than 900 tonnes per year, a pace that absorbs a meaningful slice of annual mine supply and both tightens the physical market and anchors expectations for a structurally higher floor.

ETF behaviour is aligned with that narrative. Recent commentary around Indian bullion mentions fresh inflows into gold-backed products after a short-term pullback, with local benchmarks such as the IBJA gold rate firming as jewellers restocked into the dip rather than selling into strength. That is exactly the pattern you see when dips are used to build long exposure, not to exit the trade.

Options markets reinforce the upside bias. Open interest in February call options with a $4,600 strike has increased by more than 25% in a single week, signalling that larger players are explicitly positioning for a breakout beyond the current highs rather than hedging downside. That kind of call skew is usually associated with momentum phases, not distribution tops.

Technical Structure for XAU/USD – Momentum Above $4,500, Volatility Embedded

From a pure price-action standpoint, gold (XAU/USD) has now converted the $4,500 zone into a critical battleground.

Spot recently printed a daily high near $4,517/oz, pressing just under the prior record around $4,549. The current weekly move is close to +4%, which pushes momentum indicators into elevated territory but not yet into full exhaustion by long-cycle standards.

The global bank’s forecast implies the following marker levels for this cycle:

• Upside marker: a stretch toward $5,050/oz in H1 2026 if geopolitical risk remains elevated and rate-cut expectations hold.

• Mid-cycle anchor: an end-2026 target around $4,450/oz, roughly in line with current levels, reflecting the view that big swings up and down ultimately converge near that area.

• Downside guardrail: a potential correction toward $3,950/oz later in the year if risk premia collapse and the Fed slows easing.

This paints a regime where $4,450–$4,550 is the central gravity zone, $5,000–$5,050 is the extension zone under stress, and any move toward $3,950–$4,000 should be read as capitulation rather than the start of a new secular bear trend.

Local Price Translation: Vietnam, India and Bangladesh at Record Gold Levels

Vietnam – SJC Gold Bars Above 159.8 Million VND per Tael

In Vietnam, domestic benchmarks confirm how aggressive this cycle has been. On January 10, 2026, SJC gold bars climbed to about 159.8 million VND per tael, while SJC rings reached around 156.8 million VND per tael. Just a week earlier, on January 3, bars were quoted around 150.8–152.8 million VND, with rings at 145.9–148.9 million VND.

That implies a move of roughly 7–9 million VND per tael in one week, on top of already elevated levels. Domestic media now talks about SJC bars trading at or near record prices, and the persistent premium over global spot reflects both local supply constraints and strong household demand. Vietnam’s price curve effectively shows how a global XAU/USD move from the high-$3,000s to the mid-$4,000s is amplified at the retail level when currency effects and local premia are layered on top.

India – MCX and IBJA Show a Steep 2025–2026 Re-Rating

In India, the numbers are even more striking when you look at the full-year ladder.

As of early January 2026, one domestic report shows gold at ₹1,37,122 per 10 grams, up from ₹1,34,782 just days earlier, a weekly increase of about ₹2,340. Over 2025, the same benchmark climbed from ₹76,162 per 10 grams on December 31, 2024 to ₹1,33,195 on December 31, 2025. That is a gain of ₹57,033, or roughly 75% year-on-year.

Silver moved even more, rising from ₹86,017/kg at the end of 2024 to ₹2,30,420/kg by the end of 2025 – an increase of ₹1,44,403, or about 167%. In the first week of January 2026, silver extended that move again to around ₹2,42,808/kg, adding another ₹8,258/kg in a matter of days.

Short-term futures activity confirms the squeeze. On January 10, MCX gold futures advanced about 1.25%, or roughly ₹1,700 per 10 grams, while MCX silver jumped near 5%, or about ₹12,000 per kg. Spot benchmarks reflected the move, with the IBJA rate firming as jewellers restocked inventory at higher prices and spot premiums in key cities holding steady. That is not a panic liquidation profile; it is a structural re-pricing.

One domestic strategist now talks about gold surpassing ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams by year-end 2026 and silver reaching roughly ₹2.75 lakh per kg, highlighting how the local market is internalising the global XAU/USD shift as the new baseline rather than a temporary spike.

Bangladesh – Tk 227,856 per Bhori and a Multi-Year Ladder Higher

In Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (BAJUS) has just pushed official retail prices up again. From tomorrow, the new rate will be roughly Tk 227,856 per bhori, an increase of Tk 1,050, or about 0.46%, versus the previous schedule.

The historical ladder is instructive. The domestic price of gold first broke Tk 50,000 per bhori in January 2018. By July 2023, it had crossed Tk 100,000. In February 2025, it moved beyond Tk 150,000, and later that same year surpassed Tk 200,000. Now, in early 2026, it is closing in on Tk 230,000.

Data from December 2025 show that BAJUS revised retail prices 12 times in a single month, encapsulating the volatility of this phase. The association links the latest hike to the rising cost of pure bullion in the domestic market, itself tied to global XAU/USD levels, currency moves and local supply factors. The net result is simple: Bangladeshi households that treated gold jewellery as a store of value are now staring at more than a fourfold nominal increase within eight years.

Three Structural Drivers Behind the Gold (XAU/USD) Rally

Across all these geographies, the same structural drivers keep repeating in the data.

First, the weaker US dollar and lower yields cut the holding cost of gold. With the Fed expected to cut around 56 bps over 2026 and at least some commentators still discussing 50 bps of easing sooner, the real-rate backdrop remains supportive.

Second, geopolitical tension – from wars to trade friction – continually reinforces the safe-haven bid. The HSBC desk explicitly anchors its $5,050/oz upside in “rising geopolitical risks,” and local reports in India and elsewhere attribute renewed safe-haven demand to global uncertainty.

Third, central bank accumulation and ETF inflows remove large chunks of supply from the market. The 290-tonne purchase in Q4 2025, the estimate of 900+ tonnes per year being accumulated by key countries, and the evidence of ETF inflows and restocking in India all point in the same direction: official-sector and institutional players are behaving like long-term insiders who are still building positions at current levels.

Short-Term Risks: Overextension, Volatility and the Path to $3,950

The same data set also highlights real risks.

Derivatives indicators from other metals – for example, Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD), which shows an RSI at 62.4, CCI at 164.36, and Stochastic around 80 – illustrate how quickly assets can flip from healthy momentum to overbought readings before correcting. Gold has moved almost 4% in a week and 65% in a year, with spot hugging record territory. It does not take much – a hotter inflation print, a hawkish Fed speech, a sudden ceasefire in a major conflict – to trigger a liquidation wave inside such a crowded long.

The HSBC range explicitly bakes in that risk with a $3,950 downside marker for 2026. The VT-style commentary also flags the possibility of sharp reversals back toward daily lows around $4,450 even inside an uptrend. Option markets that are heavily skewed toward $4,600 calls can amplify moves in both directions if those structures are unwound.

The key point is that volatility is not a bug of this regime; it is the core feature. Any positioning around XAU/USD has to be built on the assumption that double-digit percentage swings within months are normal, not exceptional.

Medium-Term Price Targets for Gold (XAU/USD) 2026–2029

Taking the different pieces of quantitative guidance together, a coherent price map for gold (XAU/USD) emerges:

• For H1 2026, an upside test toward $5,000–$5,050/oz is realistic if geopolitical stress and rate-cut expectations remain intact while central banks continue to buy.

• For full-year 2026, the bank’s average forecast at $4,587 and an end-year target around $4,450 imply that the market is expected to spend significant time oscillating around current levels, with violent spikes both above and below.

• For 2027–2029, projected average prices of $4,625, $4,700 and $4,775/oz suggest a slow grind higher in the structural floor even if fronts-month prices overshoot and correct multiple times along the way.

Layered on top of that, local forecasts such as ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams for India and ₹2.75 lakh per kg for silver in the same market show that domestic investors in high-demand economies are already positioning for that scenario in their own currencies.

Verdict on Gold (XAU/USD): Buy, but Expect Air Pockets

Given the numbers, gold (XAU/USD) is best characterised as a Buy with high-volatility risk, not a neutral carry asset and not a clean short.

The cycle facts are straightforward. The metal has delivered about 65% in 2025, is trading above $4,500/oz, and sits just below its all-time high near $4,549. A major global bank now expects a 2026 range between $3,950 and $5,050, with an average of $4,587 and a rising path toward $4,775 by 2029. Central banks added 290 tonnes in Q4 2025 on top of 900+ tonnes per year from key accumulators. Domestic markets in Vietnam (≈159.8m VND/tael), India (≈₹1.37 lakh/10g) and Bangladesh (≈Tk 227,856/bhori) are printing new highs and absorbing higher prices without demand collapsing.

The bear case – a slide toward $3,950/oz on easing geopolitical stress and a slower Fed cutting profile – is real, but even that scenario leaves XAU/USD well above pre-2024 levels and, by the bank’s own numbers, does not break the long-term uptrend.

On balance, the weight of the data argues for maintaining or building exposure to gold, treating any deep pullback into the low-$4,000s as a structural buying zone rather than a reason to exit the trade entirely. The correct mindset for this phase is not “is gold cheap or expensive vs. last year,” but “do the current macro and flow conditions justify gold trading somewhere inside a $3,950–$5,050 band with the centre of gravity around $4,500–$4,600?” Right now, the numbers say yes.

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