India and Physical Markets: IBJA Benchmark Prices Confirm High but Sticky Demand
Domestic physical benchmarks in India confirm how elevated global prices are being absorbed in a key consumption market. The India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) lists Gold 999 at 132,136–131,777 INR per 10 grams (AM/PM) and Gold 916 at 121,037–120,708 INR per 10 grams, with Silver 999 around 191,971–191,975 INR per kg. These are high absolute levels for households and jewelers, and jewelry demand volumes have indeed come under pressure, yet investment flows and institutional demand remain solid. IBJA’s daily bulletin also tracks macro catalysts such as speeches from FOMC members, underlining how closely domestic pricing is tied to US policy expectations. The message for XAU/USD is that even where price sensitivity is high, long-term buyers have not capitulated; they are adapting size and tenor, not abandoning gold altogether.
Short-Term Technical Picture: Symmetrical Triangle Around $4,300 Inside a Rising Channel
Technically, Gold / XAU/USD is trading inside a classic continuation setup. On the daily chart, price is forming a symmetrical triangle centered around the $4,300 region, nested within an ascending parallel channel that has defined the broader uptrend. Recent doji-type candles reflect indecision but not reversal, with both bulls and bears hesitating ahead of key macro releases. The MACD indicator remains below zero, but its histogram is contracting, signaling fading bearish pressure, while the RSI prints around 57–58, consistent with a modest bullish tone without entering overbought extremes. Immediate resistance sits near the top of the triangle around $4,340, followed by recent highs around $4,350 and then the channel peak around $4,381–$4,385, effectively the record band. On the downside, initial support is the intraday low around $4,300, followed by the triangle base near $4,280, then the channel floor around $4,240. Below that, a wider support cluster appears in the $4,192–$4,133 region, where the 50-day moving average around $4,133.36 provides a deeper technical line of defense for medium-term bulls.
Intraday View: 4-Hour Chart Shows $4,310 Support and $4,350 as Immediate Barrier
On the 4-hour timeframe, Gold / XAU/USD is consolidating above the 20-period moving average near $4,310, which has repeatedly acted as first-line intraday support. The RSI on this timeframe holds just above 50 but is drifting sideways, indicating consolidation rather than a new breakout impulse. A decisive break below $4,310–$4,300 would expose the 50-period moving average around $4,255 and then the 100-period moving average near $4,220, levels that align closely with the daily channel floor. On the upside, $4,350 remains a stubborn intraday ceiling, with any clean break above it likely to invite momentum buying toward $4,380–$4,385. The setup is typical of a market that has already delivered a massive trend and is now waiting for a macro catalyst to reset positioning.
Event Risk: CPI, PCE and the Next Move in Gold’s Real-Yield Anchor
The next decisive trigger for XAU/USD sits on the US macro calendar. The market is bracing for CPI on Thursday and PCE inflation on Friday, with both data points critical for the Fed’s 2026 easing path and for real-yield expectations. If CPI and PCE come in softer than expected, markets are likely to lean harder into the rate-cut narrative, pushing real yields lower and creating room for gold to finally clear $4,350 and attack the $4,381–$4,400 zone. A hotter-than-expected inflation print would have the opposite effect: nominal yields and the dollar could rebound, forcing XAU/USD to test $4,300, then $4,280–$4,260 and potentially the deeper $4,200–$4,130 support band as leveraged longs reduce exposure. Given the scale of the year-to-date move, both scenarios can play out with sharp swings, but the structural drivers—central-bank buying, ETF inflows, a weaker dollar framework and elevated geopolitical risk—remain intact even in the bearish short-term case.
Medium-Term Forecast for Gold / XAU/USD: Consensus Targets Cluster Near $4,500–$5,000
Street forecasts for Gold / XAU/USD after the 2025 rally have shifted substantially higher, with many institutions now treating the $4,000 handle as a base, not a peak. One major bank now projects $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, with an upside scenario toward roughly $4,900, citing the same drivers that fuelled 2025: strong central-bank buying, renewed ETF demand and constrained mine supply. Another large house estimates a 2026 average around $4,450, with a trading band in the approximate $3,950–$4,950 range, while a third sees potential for $4,500 by mid-2026 anchored in persistent investor and official-sector demand. A major asset manager’s scenario work assigns roughly a 30% probability that gold trades in a $4,500–$5,000 range if ETF inflows hold, central-bank purchases stay elevated and macro stress re-intensifies. The World Gold Council’s base case is more conservative and essentially range-bound, but even that framework leaves room for upside in a downturn or more aggressive easing cycle. The common point across these roadmaps is that sharp pullbacks are expected along the way, yet the structural floor for XAU/USD has likely shifted higher after the 2025 repricing.
Positioning and Market Psychology: 60%+ YTD Gain Forces Late Buyers to Respect Risk
With Gold / XAU/USD up roughly 60–65% year-to-date and trading above $4,300, position management becomes as important as direction. Long-term holders who accumulated below $3,000 are sitting on very large gains and have room to tolerate volatility or scale out on strength. Late entrants chasing above $4,200–$4,300 face a different risk profile: they are effectively buying into a macro hedge that has already repriced aggressively. This is why intraday flows often show fast profit-taking on spikes toward $4,350, followed by dip-buying near $4,280–$4,260. From a psychological standpoint, the market is in a phase where both fear of missing further upside and fear of a drawdown coexist, which naturally compresses price into tight ranges until data break the deadlock.
Gold / XAU/USD Verdict: Hold with Buy-the-Dip Bias, Not a Fresh All-In Buy at $4,300+
Taking all the data together—spot around $4,318–$4,337, futures near $4,348, year-to-date gains around 60–65%, structural ETF inflows of about $5.2 billion over six months, central-bank purchases of roughly 254 tonnes, a dollar weaker by 9.5% and multiple forecast bands clustering in the $4,500–$5,000 region—the directional bias for Gold / XAU/USD into 2026 remains bullish, but the entry profile at current levels is not symmetric. Above $4,300, with resistance at $4,350–$4,381 directly overhead and binary CPI risk in the next 48 hours, the cleaner stance is Hold, with a tactical preference to buy dips toward $4,260–$4,200 rather than chase every breakout attempt. A sustained weekly close below roughly $4,200 would start to challenge that view and open a deeper retracement into the $4,130 area, while a decisive daily break above $4,381–$4,385 with soft inflation data would validate the path toward the $4,500 region laid out in the more optimistic 2026 forecasts.
