Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Falls to $3.80–$3.94 as Warm Winter Kills $5.50 Spike

Natural Gas (NG=F) Winter Shakeout: From $5.50 Spike To The $3.80–$3.94 Zone

Front-Month Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Action On 16 December 2025

Natural Gas (NG=F) is trading around $3.93–$3.94 per MMBtu on December 16, 2025, after a further slide toward the $3.80 area, marking the lowest levels since late October and roughly a 27% drop from the early-December three-year high near $5.496. The intraday range sits around $3.878–$4.045, with a prior close near $4.012, so today’s move is about a 1.9% daily decline, extending a two-week downside run. Technically, price is fluctuating below the $4.200 ceiling and approaching the minor bullish channel support near $3.950 flagged by short-term models. At the same time, a separate technical view highlights a gap zone and the 200-day EMA around $3.60, suggesting that the market may try to “fill” that gap area if pressure persists. The combination is simple: NG=F has transitioned from a cold-driven spike above $5.00 to a fast mean reversion in the high-$3s, with sellers clearly in control of the tape.

*Weather Whiplash: From Cold-Driven Premium To Warmer-Than-Normal Drag On NG=F

The primary driver of this reset in Natural Gas (NG=F) is the shift in U.S. temperature expectations. Forecasts now point to above-average temperatures across much of the U.S. through December 31, including key demand centers in the Northeast. In early December, models justified a “winter premium” and helped launch the contract to $5.496, but once runs turned milder, that premium started to unwind aggressively. Natural gas is a winter-centric commodity: when late-December and early-January heating degree days are revised lower, price often reprices quickly, regardless of what seasonal statistics say about winter bullishness in general. This is exactly what the market is doing – stripping out the cold premium and re-anchoring NG=F closer to the level that matches mild weather plus strong supply.

Record Production And Storage Cushion: Why Natural Gas (NG=F) Can Fall In Winter

A key reason NG=F can drop almost a third from the highs in the middle of winter is the sheer scale of U.S. supply. Lower-48 output is running around 109.5–109.7 Bcf/d in December, essentially at or near record territory. The December EIA backdrop also shows U.S. utilities withdrawing about 177 Bcf from storage in the week ended December 5, the first meaningful draw of the season, with working gas still roughly 1% above normal and end-of-winter inventories projected around 2,000 Bcf, above the five-year average even after assumed winter draws. On top of that, U.S. LNG export feedgas is running near 18.6 Bcf/d, with November shipments hitting a record 10.9 million metric tonnes, roughly 70% of which headed to Europe. This configuration – record or near-record production, comfortable storage and strong exports – means that even in winter the market needs a sustained cold shock to justify pricing above $5.00. Without that, NG=F can trade down to the mid-$3s while fundamentals still look “adequate” rather than tight.

Global Benchmarks: TTF, UK Hubs And JKM Keep A Lid On NG=F Upside

Cross-market pricing reinforces the idea that Natural Gas (NG=F) faces a cap from abroad. Dutch TTF front-month is around €26.78/MWh, roughly $9.22 per MMBtu, while UK day-ahead trades near 70.50 p/therm and front-month around 71.46 p/therm, both only slightly lower on the day. European storage sits around 69.75% full, below last year’s 78.28% but still described as comfortable due to ample imports and Norwegian pipeline flows. In Asia, the JKM LNG benchmark hovers near $10.70–$11.00 per MMBtu, also far from crisis levels. When both European and Asian benchmarks sit in moderate ranges rather than stress territory, global LNG arbitrage does not need to pull U.S. prices dramatically higher. Instead, these markers send a message that supply is good enough worldwide, so NG=F can track local weather and storage rather than being forced upward by external scarcity.

*Short-Term Technical Map: Supports, Resistance And Channel Structure For NG=F

Technically, Natural Gas (NG=F) is in a short-term bearish phase while still trading inside a broader upward channel defined by the post-October recovery. Economies-style models show price fluctuating below $4.200, with the market “threatening positive stability” and leaning on the minor bullish channel support near $3.950. As long as NG=F trades under $4.200, the immediate bias remains negative. A clear break below the $3.950 channel base would confirm a fresh leg lower and put downside targets around $3.650 and $3.480 into play, consistent with the idea that the gap toward the 200-day EMA near $3.60 can be filled. Today’s expected intraday range is roughly $3.750–$4.200, with the official trend call for the session described as bearish. On the flip side, a daily close above $4.200 would be enough to cancel the near-term negative view and reopen a test of higher resistance; some models even point toward a first bullish objective near roughly $4.510 if the market can sustain that shift.

*Momentum Signals: Oversold Readings And What They Mean For Natural Gas (NG=F)

Momentum studies around NG=F reflect a classic winter shakeout rather than a completed capitulation. Short-term oscillators have pushed into oversold territory after the sharp drop from $5.496 down toward $3.80–$3.94, which means the downside is becoming stretched versus recent trading ranges. However, oversold does not equal “cheap enough” on its own, especially when the fundamental catalyst – warmer-than-normal temperatures through year-end – is still in place. The risk here is two-sided. If weather models stay mild, NG=F can grind lower or chop sideways in the high-$3s while remaining technically weak. If forecasts flip colder again, the oversold condition plus winter seasonality can amplify any rebound, with the possibility of $0.50–$1.00 spikes appearing in very short timeframes. Traders who are short in this zone must recognize that a forecast reversal can add a full dollar to the tape quickly; traders looking to buy need to see an actual change in data rather than relying on oversold alone.

EIA Baseline: How Today’s Sub-$4 NG=F Compares To Official 2025–2026 Averages

The EIA December Short-Term Energy Outlook provides an anchor for where Natural Gas (NG=F) sits versus policy-grade forecasts. For the current winter heating season (November–March), the agency expects Henry Hub to average around $4.30 per MMBtu, roughly 22% higher than last winter’s average. It also projects December withdrawals of about 580 Bcf and end-of-season inventories near 2,000 Bcf, still above the five-year norm. On an annual basis, the EIA sees Henry Hub averaging about $3.56 in 2025 and $4.01 in 2026, with U.S. dry gas production rising toward roughly 109.11 Bcf/d in 2026. A more granular quarterly view puts Q4 pricing near $3.87 and Q1 around $4.35, reflecting the early-December cold snap that temporarily tightened balances. Comparing this to today’s $3.80–$3.94 tape, NG=F is trading slightly below the winter average implied by EIA, which suggests modest medium-term upside if their assumptions hold, but not a structural mispricing. The market is effectively saying that late-December warmth and record output justify a discount to the model, at least until storage data and January weather prove otherwise.