Nebius Stock Price Forecast - NBIS Shares Collapses to $83.54 While Securing $20B+ AI Megadeals

NASDAQ:NBIS Hypergrowth Repricing As AI Infrastructure Demand Explodes And Valuation Compresses

NASDAQ:NBIS entered one of the most violent valuation resets of the 2025 AI cycle, collapsing from its all-time high near $141 to $83.54, even as the company delivered the most aggressive revenue acceleration in its history. The disconnect between price and performance is now the central dynamic shaping the stock. Revenue in Q3 hit $146 million, a 355% year-over-year surge, driven by hyperscaler consumption of Nebius’s GPU cloud capacity. The stock’s pullback occurred while utilization remained at full capacity, limiting top-line expansion not because of demand, but because Nebius physically ran out of power and rack integration bandwidth, a rare problem in the AI infrastructure landscape. This tightness sits against contracted hyperscaler obligations that now exceed $20+ billion, including Microsoft’s historic $17–19 billion deal and Meta’s new $3 billion GPU cloud agreement. With the stock linked in real time at https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/NBIS/real_time_chart, the market’s short-term disappointment in the Meta contract valuation masked the true constraint: Nebius cannot deploy GPUs fast enough to meet incoming demand.

NASDAQ:NBIS Margin Transition As Core Infrastructure EBITDA Approaches Breakthrough Levels

The core infrastructure segment of NASDAQ:NBIS is quietly approaching a structural margin turning point. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed by 89%, improving to −$5.2 million, while gross profit surged to $103.2 million, a staggering 365% jump. Gross margins stabilized at 71%, up from 69%, proving significant operating leverage even during the heaviest investment cycle in company history. Cost of revenue increased 333% to $42.9 million, but fell to 29% of revenue, confirming a utilization-driven improvement in profitability. R&D continued rising to support the upcoming Blackwell deployments, but SG&A remained tightly controlled despite global expansion in Finland, Israel, New Jersey, and the U.K. Operating cash flow was supported by milestone payments from hyperscaler contracts, adding liquidity during peak CapEx years. The path to full profitability is not immediate—GAAP losses remain—but the adjusted EBITDA margin for infrastructure already sits near 19%, validating the long-term unit economics.

NASDAQ:NBIS CapEx Escalation And The Race Toward 2.5 Gigawatts Of Contracted Power

Nebius’s infrastructure scale-out is moving at a pace unmatched in the sector. Q3 CapEx hit $955 million, lifting full-year spending guidance from $2 billion to $5 billion, driven by GPU purchases, powered shell development, and data center construction. The balance sheet carries $4.8 billion in cash and restricted cash, complemented by $4.1 billion in newly issued convertible debt. The company introduced an at-the-market equity program for 25 million shares, providing 2026 funding flexibility while creating dilution sensitivity for shareholders. Management outlined its three-phase CapEx model: land and power acquisition at ~1%, powered shells at ~20%, and GPU installation at ~80%, with GPU spend triggered only by signed customer contracts. Nebius targets 2.5 GW of contracted power and 800 MW–1 GW of connected capacity by 2026—nearly 10x its 2025 footprint—creating a moat anchored in speed of activation, sovereign compute, and supply-chain control.

NASDAQ:NBIS Hyperscaler Megadeals Transforming Revenue Visibility And ARR Trajectory

The Microsoft megadeal continues to redefine the financial architecture of NASDAQ:NBIS, setting the foundation for a projected ARR surge to $7–9 billion in 2026, up from $900M–$1.1B in 2025—a 700% uplift. September’s contract with Microsoft outstripped Nebius’s entire market cap at signing, establishing guaranteed revenue through 2031. Meta followed with a $3 billion, multi-phase, Blackwell-powered GPU cloud agreement designed to support Llama 3.1 and future models. Meta’s upcoming deployments align with Nebius’s presold facilities in New Jersey, Finland, Israel, and the U.K., benefiting from Nebius’s ability to energize racks within weeks, not quarters—critical in a world where hyperscalers face multiyear interconnection delays. Even though the market expected a larger Meta deal, the real bottleneck is not demand—it's power, and both Microsoft and Meta seek more GPUs than Nebius can currently deploy. Expansion phases are widely expected, but not yet priced into the stock.

NASDAQ:NBIS AI Supply Chain Position Strengthened By Blackwell, Inference Platforms And Pipeline Momentum

Nebius is positioned at the center of the GPU supply chain. The company deploys Nvidia GB200 and GB300 NVL72 racks, supported by Quantum-2 InfiniBand topologies that mirror internal hyperscaler architectures. Nebius’s sovereign cloud framework—complete stack ownership, liquid cooling, rack design, and control software—drives operational efficiency beyond colocation peers. A new enterprise-grade inference platform introduces a high-margin software layer, enabling rapid deployment of custom or open-source AI models and opening a long-duration recurring revenue channel. The impending release of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin GPU architecture in 2026 could ignite another upgrade cycle, generating additional hyperscaler contracts. With OpenAI targeting $850 billion in long-range data center build-out investment, and Meta expanding its AI Superintelligence division, Nebius sits at the nexus of global compute expansion.