Ripple XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD ETF Bets and Whale Moves Test $2.80 Support
XRP holds $166B market cap as whales sell, ETFs near approval, and technicals hint at a 75% rally toward $52 if momentum shifts | That's TradingNEWS
Ripple XRP-USD Price Forecast: Technical Pressures, Whale Moves, and ETF Catalysts
XRP-USD Holds Fragile Support Around $2.80
Ripple’s XRP-USD is stabilizing near $2.80 after a 2.6% daily decline, with market capitalization at $166.7 billion and trading volume over $7 billion in the last 24 hours. This correction followed a rejection near $3.25, where heavy selling from whales triggered liquidations of more than $15 million in long positions, compared with just $1 million in shorts. Key support sits at $2.79, $2.58, and $2.43, while resistance levels remain at $2.99, $3.09, and $3.25. Technical signals lean bearish, with RSI at 41 and MACD histograms widening on the downside. If buyers fail to defend $2.58, momentum could carry XRP-USD lower toward the $2.20–$2.40 range, a critical psychological band for long-term bulls.
Whale Transactions Dictating Sentiment
Recent whale accumulation around the $2.81–$3.13 zone, totaling 1.7 billion XRP, offered temporary support. However, a 470 million XRP sell-off in mid-August 2025 erased 17% of market value in days, underscoring the fragile balance between accumulation and distribution. The Taker Buy-Sell Ratio at 0.90 indicates persistent selling pressure. Historically, dips below 1 in this ratio have signaled local bottoms, such as on August 2 when XRP bounced 20% in the following weeks. For now, institutional demand appears muted, leaving retail traders closely tracking whale inflows and ETF speculation for the next catalyst.
ETF Demand and Regulatory Outlook for XRP
XRP is entering a pivotal phase with 10 major asset managers—including Invesco, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise—filing for spot XRP ETFs. Derivatives like leveraged XRP ETFs have already accumulated $500 million combined, proving institutional appetite. A full SEC approval would force managers to purchase tokens directly, potentially absorbing billions in circulating supply. Regulatory clarity, boosted by Ripple’s earlier SEC court win, has removed a major overhang, but the next step is securing ETF approval. Betting markets now price in 85% odds of approval, mirroring Ethereum’s ETF path, which attracted $12.4 billion net inflows in its first year.
Ripple Ecosystem and Stablecoin Expansion
Ripple’s ecosystem is showing real traction beyond speculation. The company’s stablecoin, RLUSD, has surged toward $700 million in circulation, powering high-profile transactions such as the Bullish IPO and potentially Gemini’s listing. RLUSD’s transaction volume rose 15% month-over-month to $2.7 billion, indicating tangible usage. Additionally, Ripple’s acquisition of Rail expands institutional payment reach, reinforcing XRP’s role in cross-border settlements. On-demand liquidity (ODL) adoption continues to expand globally, adding long-term demand drivers that could counterbalance short-term volatility.
Comparative Strength Versus Bitcoin and Solana
Historically, XRP outperforms Bitcoin (BTC-USD) in bull cycles. Over the past year, XRP has surged 407%, dwarfing Bitcoin’s 88% gain. Yet in treasury adoption, XRP lags Solana (SOL-USD), with corporates holding just $460 million in XRP compared to $905 million in SOL. That gap has drawn questions over whether XRP can maintain a top-three market cap if ETF approvals or corporate treasuries favor other blockchains. Nonetheless, XRP’s utility in payments remains a unique edge over meme-driven or high-speed competitors.
Macro Environment and Federal Reserve Impact
XRP’s trajectory is also tied to U.S. monetary policy. The Fed’s September meeting carries 85% odds of a rate cut, a move that would inject liquidity back into risk assets. A dovish pivot could propel XRP-USD back above $3.25 and toward $4.60 in the short term. Conversely, stickier inflation, shown in July’s PCE Index at 2.9% YoY, could delay easing and keep pressure on speculative assets. Crypto cycles have historically accelerated on Fed liquidity—if easing materializes, XRP may mirror its 2017 macro triangle breakout, which triggered a move into double-digit prices.
Technical Setups Point to Explosive Moves
Chart structures are flashing signals of a potential breakout. A bullish flag pattern projects an initial move to $4.60, while a longer-term cup-and-handle formation dating back to January points to a staggering $52 target, equating to 75% upside from current levels. If XRP sustains above $2.79 and breaks $3.25 resistance, bulls could regain control rapidly. Failure at $2.58, however, risks unraveling toward $2.20 and invalidating the bullish setup.
Price Scenarios and Long-Term Projections
If XRP maintains its current 4.6% share of the crypto market and Bitcoin reaches $1 million—a scenario implying a 764% BTC gain—XRP’s proportional value would be $26.35, with a market cap of $1.566 trillion inside a $36 trillion crypto market. More aggressive projections from AI-driven models range from $15 to $100, with extreme cases suggesting triple-digit valuations. While these forecasts depend on adoption curves, they highlight the asymmetric upside XRP offers relative to its current $2.8 handle.
Verdict on XRP-USD
Ripple’s XRP-USD sits at a crossroads. Short-term technicals show pressure toward $2.58, while whale activity introduces volatility and ETF approval odds are building a long-term bull case. The ecosystem expansion with RLUSD, global ODL adoption, and regulatory clarity strengthen fundamentals, but market share battles with Solana highlight risks. With fair upside scenarios projecting $4.60 in the near term and as high as $26–$52 in structural bull cases, XRP-USD is a Buy on dips above $2.58—with the caveat that near-term volatility could be sharp before the next institutional wave drives a breakout.
